Lineup Prep: Week 2

Wed Sep 15 11:08am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Swift can produce big this week

Well, that was a great first week of action. We had it all with some great games, big fantasy performances and disappointing showings. Just remember, it is a really long season that can change in a hurry. Again, don’t ignore what happened but don’t jump the gun with conclusions based on a week of action. With that said, here are my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

The running back situations in San Francisco and Baltimore are tough ones right now. For me, I like Elijah Mitchell the best out of the 49ers options. I do think he carries risk in an offense that likes to rotate backs but his ceiling is really high if he can grab hold of that starter’s job. So while he might be a boom or bust pickup this week, I think his ceiling is high enough that he is worth going big on when trying to acquire him.

Now Ty’son Williams is in a similar situation, but I worry about his competition a tad more, especially after seeing Latavius Murray getting so much work after just getting signed. Again, I think Williams is the back with the most upside, but he isn’t a sure thing by any means. It would not surprise me to see more of a timeshare in Baltimore. The good news is both of these backs play in very good run offenses, giving them nice weekly potential even if they aren’t getting as many carries as a true starter.

I think one of the big takeaways from Week 1 is that Dak Prescott is healthy and ready to have a huge season in this offense. Remember, he was posting monster numbers before his injury last year, so his ceiling is so high with all of these top weapons to work with in the passing game. Plus, he plays in an offense that has a history of producing good fantasy numbers for quarterbacks.

I would not worry too much about Aaron Rodgers just yet. He will figure it out and get going. He is too talented and has too much pride to repeat a performance like last week. Remember, he missed most of the offseason workouts with the team. Those workouts are really valuable to get everyone on the same page - even for a veteran like Rodgers. This team is too talented to keep playing at that level. Don’t panic just yet.

So I am concerned about Brandon Aiyuk. I always say don’t overreact to a game but his start to the season was concerning, especially if you hear what his coach had to say about the reason for his lack of playing time. Aiyuk has talent and time to turn it around, but it was not good to see him on the sidelines so much. I would keep him on my bench until he starts getting targets and weekly production.

Kyler Murray and that Cardinals offense sure looked great. There are a lot of elite fantasy quarterbacks, but Murray has a real chance to finish first overall in fantasy quarterback scoring this year. He seems to have taken his game to a new level and his assortment of weapons gives you hope for big-time production on a weekly basis.

I am excited to bring you the first RTSports Weekly livestream this Wednesday at 2 PM EST. This stream is going to be dedicated to the community at RealTime Fantasy Sports. I feel like the community here at RTSports is what separates us from other sites. And this stream is going to be focused on talking about the players on our site, including performances from the past week. There is going to be some strategy talk as well and I will take some questions if you have them. Please tune in this week. I’m looking forward to the stream. And I’m open to suggestions if you have them. You can watch it here: www.twitch.tv/jpaur18.

News and Notes: The 49ers signed cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick on Monday. He helps provide some depth in a secondary that has been hit by injury. . . . .Tampa Bay named running back Ronald Jones the starter for this week’s game. Jones played little of the bench for the Bucs last week, getting benched for losing a fumble. . . . .The Titans released kicker Michael Badgley on Monday, a day after he missed his only field-goal attempt and an extra-point try. The team has Randy Bullock on the practice squad, so he could get his chance to kick this week. . . . .The Panthers cut kicker Ryan Santoso on Tuesday. Carolina signed kicker Zane Gonzalez to take over the starting duties for the team. . . . .The NFL Players Association has determined that wide receiver Josh Gordon has successfully completed his NFL-monitored treatment program and has recommended to the league that he be reinstated.

HOT PLAYS

D’Andre Swift, RB, Lions. Swift didn’t start last week but led the Lions in playing time at running back. He played 63 snaps compared to 32 for Jamaal Williams. Swift was targeted 11 times in the game and finished with 104 total yards and a touchdown. His playing time should just increase going forward as he gets healthier. He plays a Packers team last week that was a disaster, allowing the third most rushing yards in the league (171). Swift can come up big again this week for fantasy teams.

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers. Samuel was the clear No. 1 receiver for the 49ers last week, finishing with nine receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. Many thought Brandon Aiyuk was going to be the guy in San Francisco, but that is not the case right now. Samuel led all 49ers in snaps, having 46 in the game. He played 19 more than the next 49ers receiver. Samuel is going to rack up the targets on a weekly basis in this offense. He should keep it going this week against the Eagles. Philadelphia did well in limiting the Falcons passing game last week, but this team is susceptible through the air.

Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. Wilson got off to a great start last week, missing on just five passes while throwing for 254 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. And he did this against a good Colts defense on the road. Things will get easier for him this week against the Titans at home. Tennessee was torched by the Cardinals passing game in the opener. The Titans allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks in Week 1.

David Montgomery, RB, Bears. Montgomery was a big bright spot for the Bears last week. He topped the 100-yard rushing mark against a team that didn’t allow a 100-yard rusher all last season. Montgomery ran 16 times for 108 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. He had a tough matchup last week and produced, but gets a much easier test this week. Montgomery plays the Bengals, a team that allowed the seventh most fantasy points to running backs in Week 1.

Mike Williams, WR, Chargers. Williams looked great in the Chargers new offense last week, being a great fit for his spot in the passing attack. He had eight receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets against a very good Washington defense. Williams might be able to build on that this week against the Cowboys, a team that has big issues against the pass. Dallas allowed the sixth most fantasy points to receivers in the opener.

COLD PLAYS

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders. Jacobs ran hard and scored two touchdowns last week, but was really held in check. He ran 10 times for just 34 yards and looked hobbled throughout the game. He faces a similar tough test this week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in football and allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points to running backs in Week 1. It is tough to sit Jacobs but just temper your expectations for him in this one.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk was a huge bust last week. Most thought he would be the top target this year for the 49ers but he played sparingly, playing behind Trent Sherfield. Aiyuk played just 26 snaps while Sherfield played 27. And comments from head coach Kyle Shanahan were a little concerning, saying Sherfield deserved to play before him. He might be trying to send a message to Aiyuk, but for now, Aiyuk belongs on fantasy benches until he does something on the field.

Sam Darnold, QB, Panthers. Darnold had an impressive opener, throwing for 279 yards and a touchdown without a turnover. He did this against a pretty mediocre Jets defense, though. He has a much tougher test this week against the Saints. New Orleans just made Aaron Rodgers look silly. Darnold is not on the same level as Rodgers, so expect him to come back down to earth in this matchup.

Mark Ingram, RB, Texans. Ingram led the Texans in rushes, getting 26 carries for 85 yards and a touchdown. He got a lot of work with the Texans getting a big lead in the game. This won’t be the case every week. The Texans really did split up the work at running back in Week 1. Ingram had 35 snaps while David Johnson played 22 and Phillip Lindsay got 20 snaps. This was a pretty even split between the three backs but game flow could dictate Ingram’s playing time. If the Texans have to throw, Ingram won’t be on the field. Ingram plays the Browns this week, a team that just took the Chiefs toe to toe. Cleveland might win this one going away, meaning Ingram won’t be on the field nearly as much.

Russell Gage, WR, Falcons. Gage did not catch a pass on two targets last week. He got playing time, playing 48 of 71 snaps, but didn’t get the work. He could be up and down in this offense all season, especially with Kyle Pitts now a big part of this passing attack. Gage is going to be a matchup play on a weekly basis. And this week isn’t one to use him, playing the Bucs. Sure, Tampa was torched by the Cowboys passing game last week but Atlanta doesn’t have near the firepower of the Cowboys. Look for the Bucs to put the clamps on this offense in Week 2.

SLEEPERS

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Broncos. The Broncos looked like they made the right decision on their quarterback after a week. Bridgewater looked great in the opener, going 28-of-36 for 264 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. He moved the offense and got their top playmakers involved in the passing game. He is not going to be an every-week starter by any means but a good spot play. He can produce the big game for the Broncos. Bridgewater has a prime matchup for success this week, playing the Jaguars. Jacksonville couldn’t stop the Texans last week, which is great news for Bridgewater and the Broncos.

Dyami Brown, WR, Washington. Brown didn’t produce on the field last week but had the second most snaps (51) of the receivers in Washington. He caught just a pass but was targeted four times in the game. Brown got a ton of playing time and showed he is going to be a big part of this passing game going forward. Brown is setup to have some big games this year and one could come this week against the Giants. New York allowed 255-passing yards in Week 1 against a mediocre Broncos passing game.

JaMycal Hasty, RB, 49ers. Hasty didn’t play much in the opener but was on the field for 16 plays. Elijah Mitchell got most of the work (35 snaps) with Raheem Mostert out, but Hasty was out there some despite not getting many touches. He is going to get his work while Mostert is out. The 49ers like to rotate backs and get several backs involved in the game plan. It would not surprise to see Hasty get double-digit touches in this game. Remember, he played well this preseason, which is why he was ahead of rookie Trey Sermon on the depth chart to start his season.

Zach Pascal, WR, Colts. Pascal had four receptions for 43 yards and two touchdowns on five targets in Week 1. He led the Colts receivers in targets, getting a chance to start opposite Michael Pittman. Pascal is going to keep starting as long as TY Hilton is out. Pascal has a tough matchup this week against the Rams, but Jalen Ramsey likely shadows Michael Pittman in the game, leaving Pascal with more favorable coverages. He might lead the Colts receivers in targets once again. The Rams might get up big in this one after an impressive opener, meaning the Colts have to play catch up.

Jared Cook, TE, Chargers. Cook had a solid first game with the Chargers, catching five receptions for 56 yards on eight targets. He looked to be a big part of the Chargers passing game and could be a fine fantasy play throughout the season. Cook can build on his first game in Week 2, playing the Cowboys. Dallas was burnt by Rob Gronkowski in Week 1, having all sorts of trouble stoping the tight end.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: 49ers/Eagles, Vikings/Cardinals, Falcons/Bucs, Cowboys/Chargers, Titans/Seahawks, Chiefs/Ravens.

Low Scoring Games: Giants/Washington, Bengals/Bears.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 2

The Paur Report