RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 11

Fri Nov 14 8:40am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

The Colts and Saints are the only two teams that are on a bye for Week 11. That leaves us with plenty of options to ponder over in DFS. Let’s highlight some players to consider at each position, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott, DAL at LV ($6,500): Prescott has had added time to prepare for this matchup with the Cowboys having their bye in Week 10. He has been a touchdown machine this season, producing at least three scores in a game four times. Look for him to have a high floor versus a Raiders team that has given up 24.4 points per game.

Aaron Rodgers, PIT vs. CIN ($5,400): Rodgers was awful against the Chargers last week, throwing for 161 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. As bad as that was, facing the Bengals vaults him towards the top of the DFS options at quarterback. They have allowed 33.3 points per game and the third-most passing yards per game in the league. When he faced them in Week 7, Rodgers compiled 249 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions.

Player to Avoid

Patrick Mahomes, KC at DEN ($6,800): Mahomes has reached at least 300 passing yards in a game just one time this season. He also has one or no touchdown passes in five of his nine games. The Chiefs’ offense is much more potent with Rashee Rice back in the fold, but Mahomes is still a risky option against a Broncos team that has given up just eight passing touchdowns all season.

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, GB at NYG ($7,800): In a defensive slugfest against the Eagles last week, Jacobs scored the lone touchdown for the Packers. It marked his 11th touchdown of season. He also had 107 total yards in the game. With his average of 21.1 touches per game, he has the potential to decimate a Giants defense that has given up 5.84 yards per carry to running backs. There is a case to be made for building your entire entry around Jacobs.

Jaylen Warren, PIT vs. CIN ($6,100): When these two teams met in Week 7, Warren also had one of his best stat lines of the season. He ran 16 times for 127 yards, while catching four of five targets for 31 yards. Not only has he received at least 11 carries in every game this season, but he has also come away from each matchup with at least two receptions. In a game in which the Steelers could score in bunches, Warren is another member of their offense to consider in DFS.

Player to Avoid

Jordan Mason, MIN vs. CHI ($6,000): Mason played well when Aaron Jones was sidelined earlier in the season. However, he has received a total of just 18 carries and three targets over the last three games with Jones back in the fold. He finished with 36 or fewer rushing yards in each game. Warren has almost the same salary, a leading role and a terrific matchup, so there’s no reason to consider Mason for your lineups.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb, DAL at LV ($8,000): Talk about players with a high floor. Lamb has played five full games this season. He caught at least five passes in all of them, including four games in which he had at least seven receptions. He has not finished with fewer than 74 receiving yards, while also posting three games with at least 110 receiving yards. For those who decide to roll with Prescott at quarterback, Lamb is the top option to stack with him. Even those who don’t deploy Prescott should take a long look at adding Lamb to their lineup.

Michael Wilson, ARI vs. SF ($3,800): Already thin at wide receiver, the Cardinals will play this game without Marvin Harrison Jr. (appendix) and Zay Jones (Achilles). While that should mean a ton of targets for star tight end Trey McBride, Wilson also stands out as a potential value option at his cheap salary. After a quiet start to the season, Wilson has 14 receptions for 179 yards over his last four games. He has also been targeted at least four times in six straight games. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him blow past five targets in this matchup.

Player to Avoid

A.J. Brown, PHI vs. DET ($6,000): Brown hauled in just two passes for 13 yards against the Packers last week. He was targeted just three times, which was his second-lowest mark of the season. Despite his immense talent, Brown has finished with fewer than 45 receiving yards in a game five times this season. Until he strings together some good performances, he’s not worth the risk at his salary.

Tight Ends

Brocks Bowers, LV vs, DAL ($6,000): In a tough matchup with the Broncos last week, Bowers caught one of three targets for 31 yards. That was in stark contrast to his Week 9 showing against the Jaguars in which he caught 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and three touchdowns. The Cowboys have given up the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league, so this is a favorable bounce-back spot for Bowers.

Jonnu Smith, PIT vs. CIN ($2,900): Targeting tight ends against the Bengals has proven to be a sound strategy. They have given up a league-high 12 touchdowns to the position. That’s five more than any other team. When Smith faced them earlier in the season, he recorded three receptions for 28 yards and one touchdown. If he finds his way into the end zone again, he makes for a great play at such a cheap salary.

Player to Avoid

Luke Musgrave, GB at NYG ($3,700): Tucker Kraft (knee) was the centerpiece of the Packers’ passing attack, so losing him for the rest of the season is a huge blow. In the first game without him, Musgrave caught all three of his targets for 23 yards. This could be a run-heavy game plan for the Packers with how bad the Giants have been at stopping running backs, which might not leave many opportunities for Musgrave to make an impact.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 11

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