Tough Decisions
2017-06-08 10:41:38
By JEFF PAUR @jeffpaur
Sr Fantasy Writer
It is a difficult call every year to figure out the position to select early in your draft. And these are really make or break picks for many fantasy teams. If you miss out on a first-round pick, having a successful season is going to be a lot harder for your fantasy team. We thought it might be a good idea to look back at picks from the past few seasons and see the positions that were easiest to predict, comparing ADP numbers to end of the season fantasy ranking. By looking at these numbers, it will give you an idea of the positions that you need to hit on early in your draft. You will find the numbers to be interesting and maybe not what you expected. And away we go. . . .
First up, we will look at the quarterback position. These numbers might not tell you quite as much since the position is shallow and figuring out the top players at the quarterback spot might not be quite as hard. But even with that said, there were more misses than hits last year when it came to this position.
ADP 2015 RANK ADP 2016 RANK
1 Andrew Luck 28 1 Aaron Rodgers 1
2 Aaron Rodgers 7 2 Cam Newton 18
3 Drew Brees 6 3 Andrew Luck 4
4 Peyton Manning 32 4 Russell Wilson 10
5 B. Roethlisberger 20 5 Drew Brees 2
6 Russell Wilson 3 6 B. Roethlisberger 16
7 Matt Ryan 18 7 Tom Brady 20
8 Tom Brady 2 8 Blake Bortles 6
9 Matthew Stafford 10 9 Eli Manning 21
10 Tony Romo 41 10 Carson Palmer 17
11 Ryan Tannehill 15 11 Derek Carr 12
12 Sam Bradford 23 12 M. Stafford 7
13 Eli Manning 8 13 Philip Rivers 9
14 Philip Rivers 11 14 Jameis Winston 11
15 Cam Newton 1 15 Kirk Cousins 5
16 T. Bridgewater 24 16 Andy Dalton 13
17 Carson Palmer 5 17 Tyrod Taylor 15
18 Jay Cutler 21 18 Matt Ryan 3
19 C. Kaepernick 31 19 Marcus Mariota 14
20 Andy Dalton 19 20 Brock Osweiler 28
Just four of the top-10 quarterbacks selected last year were top-10 quarterbacks at the end of the season. This doesn't mean the six quarterbacks that finished outside the top 10 were complete misses, but it shows the position might not be as easy to pick as first thought.
The previous season was a little better but not my much, having five of the top-10 quarterbacks selected finish in the top 10 at the position. Put the last two season's numbers together and nine of 20 (45 percent) quarterbacks picked in the first 10 at the position finished as top-10 fantasy quarterbacks. Maybe the quarterback spot isn't quite as easy to pick as we first thought.
Next up is the running back spot. Much of the talk last season was the running back spot is the one that fluctuates most, so going receiver early in the drafts is the way to go. It is the safe play. Let's see if this truly was the way to go.
ADP 2015 RANK ADP 2016 RANK
1 Adrian Peterson 2 1 David Johnson 1
2 Le'Veon Bell 48 2 Todd Gurley 15
3 Eddie Lacy 32 3 Adrian Peterson 120
4 Jamaal Charles 51 4 Ezekiel Elliott 2
5 Marshawn Lynch 61 5 Lamar Miller 19
6 C.J. Anderson 31 6 Le'Veon Bell 3
7 Matt Forte 8 7 Devonta Freeman 6
8 DeMarco Murray 15 8 Mark Ingram 8
9 Jeremy Hill 20 9 Eddie Lacy 75
10 Justin Forsett 41 10 LeSean McCoy 4
11 LeSean McCoy 17 11 C.J. Anderson 46
12 Lamar Miller 6 12 Doug Martin 54
13 Frank Gore 14 13 Latavius Murray 13
14 Mark Ingram 12 14 Jamaal Charles 114
15 Latavius Murray 10 15 Matt Forte 21
16 Melvin Gordon 45 16 Carlos Hyde 18
17 Alfred Morris 53 17 Thomas Rawls 60
18 Andre Ellington 68 18 D. Murray 5
19 Carlos Hyde 63 19 J. Langford 58
20 Arian Foster 65 20 D. Woodhead 95
21 Ameer Abdullah 44 21 Melvin Gordon 7
22 J. Stewart 23 22 Jeremy Hill 22
23 Doug Martin 4 23 Ryan Mathews 29
24 Joseph Randle 72 24 Duke Johnson 32
25 Todd Gurley 9 25 Giovani Bernard 40
So six of the first 10 running backs picked last year were top 10-running backs. That is a pretty good percentage (60 percent). And 11 of the top-20 running backs selected were top-20 running backs, which isn't quite as good. Lastly, seven of the top-20 running backs selected finished outside the top 50 in the end of season rankings.
The previous season was a lot more volatile for the running back spot. In 2015, two of the top-10 running backs selected were top-10 running backs at season's end. And nine of the first 20 running backs picked were top-20 fantasy backs at the end of the season. Lastly, six of the top 20 running backs picked finished outside the top 50 at the position. The running back spot was a lot harder to predict in 2015, leading many to go receiver or any other position early come draft day last year.
In the last two seasons, eight of the first 10 running backs picked in drafts were top-10 fantasy backs. That is just 40 percent of running backs hitting the mark come draft day. And 50 percent of the first 20 backs picked were top-20 backs last year. This shows the position is a tricky one that can be hard to predict. You need to find those diamonds in the rough and hit on your elite backs early in drafts if you hope to have success, which is easier said than done.
The receiver spot is next to examine and might surprise readers a little.
ADP 2015 RANK ADP 2016 RANK
1 Antonio Brown 1 1 Antonio Brown 1
2 Julio Jones 2 2 O. Beckham Jr. 4
3 Dez Bryant 82 3 Julio Jones 6
4 O. Beckham Jr. 5 4 DeAndre Hopkins 29
5 D. Thomas 10 5 A.J. Green 34
6 Calvin Johnson 12 6 Allen Robinson 26
7 A.J. Green 9 7 Dez Bryant 39
8 Randall Cobb 26 8 Keenan Allen 162
9 T Y Hilton 24 9 Mike Evans 3
10 Brandin Cooks 14 10 Jordy Nelson 2
11 Alshon Jeffery 43 11 B. Marshall 49
12 Jordan Matthews 16 12 Alshon Jeffery 55
13 Mike Evans 22 13 Amari Cooper 15
14 D. Hopkins 4 14 Brandin Cooks 10
15 E. Sanders 18 15 Jarvis Landry 13
16 Davante Adams 69 16 D. Thomas 16
17 Jeremy Maclin 15 17 T Y Hilton 5
18 Golden Tate 23 18 Sammy Watkins 92
19 Amari Cooper 21 19 Randall Cobb 54
20 Andre Johnson 58 20 Julian Edelman 14
21 Julian Edelman 36 21 Jeremy Maclin 73
22 Jarvis Landry 8 22 Kelvin Benjamin 27
23 Keenan Allen 42 23 Donte Moncrief 77
24 Sammy Watkins 20 24 Eric Decker 123
25 DeSean Jackson 68 25 Golden Tate 17
Five of the first 10 receivers selected last year were top-10 receivers at the end of the year. So just half of the first 10 receivers picked lived up to their draft position, which was one less than the running back spot last year. And 11 of the first 20 receivers picked finished as top-20 fantasy receivers. Lastly, four of the first 20 receivers selected finished outside the top 50 at the position, which shows misses weren't quite as bad for the position.
As for the previous season, the numbers were very similar to last year. Five of the first 10 receivers selected were top-10 fantasy receivers. And just like last year, 11 of the first 20 receivers selected in '15 were top-20 fantasy receivers at the end of the year. There were just three receivers picked in the first 20 picks that ended the year out of the top 50 at receiver. So what we can take away from this is that the missed picks aren't nearly as bad for the receiver position (18 percent of top-20 selected last two years finished outside of top 50), but getting the top guys right isn't quite as easy as many thought. The receiver position probably isn't quite as easy to pick as most thought. Sure, there are more choices at receiver than running back come draft day but it isn't a huge disparity. It is very intriguing to see how similar the numbers are between the running back and receiver position in this article.
The last position we will examine is the tight end spot. Much like the quarterback spot, the position isn't quite as deep, so we won't delve too deep into the numbers.
ADP 2015 RANK ADP 2016 RANK
1 Rob Gronkowski 1 1 Rob Gronkowski 26
2 Jimmy Graham 20 2 Jordan Reed 9
3 Greg Olsen 5 3 Greg Olsen 3
4 Travis Kelce 6 4 Travis Kelce 1
5 Martellus Bennett 22 5 Delanie Walker 5
6 Zach Ertz 9 6 Coby Fleener 15
7 Jordan Cameron 27 7 Gary Barnidge 19
8 Delanie Walker 3 8 Zach Ertz 6
9 Jason Witten 10 9 Jimmy Graham 4
10 Tyler Eifert 8 10 Julius Thomas 32
11 Julius Thomas 19 11 Antonio Gates 12
12 Kyle Rudolph 15 12 Tyler Eifert 25
13 Vernon Davis 33 13 M. Bennett 10
14 Owen Daniels 21 14 Eric Ebron 14
15 Coby Fleener 17 15 Dennis Pitta 8
16 Antonio Gates 12 16 Jason Witten 11
17 Seferian-Jenkins 32 17 Dwayne Allen 22
18 Larry Donnell 40 18 Jared Cook 36
19 Dwayne Allen 58 19 Jack Doyle 13
20 Jordan Reed 2 20 Zach Miller 20
Last season, six of the first 10 tight ends selected were top-10 fantasy tight ends. The '15 season was a little better with seven of the first 10 tight ends picked finishing as top-10 fantasy tight ends. So in the last two seasons, 13 of the first 10 tight ends selected were top-10 fantasy tight ends at season's end (65 percent). So the tight end spot looks to be the easiest to get right come draft day. This isn't a huge surprise because of the depth of the position and how top-heavy it has played out in recent years.
In closing, no position is a sure thing. There are hits and misses every year at every position. The key is for you to identify the players that will be the top ones for the coming season. Sure, injuries factor into this study but many times it is performance as well. And there isn't a position out there that is a sure thing for early in your draft. You need to just take the best player that you think carries the least amount of risk come draft day and hope that plays out at season's end.
% of players selected in the top 10/20 that finished in the top 10/20
2016 2015 2 YR AVG
TOP 10 TOP 20 TOP 10 TOP 20 TOP 10 TOP 20
QB 40% 90% 50% 65% 45% 78%
RB 60% 55% 20% 45% 40% 50%
WR 50% 55% 50% 55% 50% 55%
TE 60% 75% 70% 65% 65% 70%