Tough Decisions
Wed May 30 2:01pm ET
By JEFF PAUR @jeffpaur
Sr Fantasy Writer
It is a difficult call every year to figure out the position to select early in your draft. And these are really make or break picks for many fantasy teams. If you miss out on a first-round pick, having a successful season is going to be a lot harder for your fantasy team. We thought it might be a good idea to look back at picks from the past three seasons and see the positions that were easiest to predict, comparing ADP numbers to end of the season fantasy ranking. By looking at these numbers, it will give you an idea of the positions that you need to hit on early in your draft. You will find the numbers to be interesting and maybe not what you expected. Here we go. . . .
First up, we will look at the quarterback position. These numbers might not tell you quite as much since the position is shallow and figuring out the top players at the quarterback spot might not be quite as hard. But even with that said, there have been plenty of misses with the top-10 quarterbacks the past few seasons.
ADP 2015 RANK ADP 2016 RANK ADP 2017 RANK
1 Andrew Luck 28 1 Aaron Rodgers 1 1 Aaron Rodgers 31
2 Aaron Rodgers 7 2 Cam Newton 18 2 Tom Brady 2
3 Drew Brees 6 3 Andrew Luck 4 3 Drew Brees 10
4 Peyton Manning 32 4 Russell Wilson 10 4 Matt Ryan 14
5 B. Roethlisberger 20 5 Drew Brees 2 5 Russell Wilson 1
6 Russell Wilson 3 6 B. Roethlisberg 16 6 Cam Newton 3
7 Matt Ryan 18 7 Tom Brady 20 7 Marcus Mariota 19
8 Tom Brady 2 8 Blake Bortles 6 8 B. Roethlisberger 9
9 Matthew Stafford 10 9 Eli Manning 21 9 Jameis Winston 17
10 Tony Romo 41 10 Carson Palmer 17 10 Derek Carr 18
11 Ryan Tannehill 15 11 Derek Carr 12 11 Kirk Cousins 6
12 Sam Bradford 23 12 M. Stafford 7 12 Andrew Luck DNP
13 Eli Manning 8 13 Philip Rivers 9 13 Dak Prescott 11
14 Philip Rivers 11 14 Jameis Winston 11 14 Matthew Stafford 5
15 Cam Newton 1 15 Kirk Cousins 5 15 Philip Rivers 7
16 T. Bridgewater 24 16 Andy Dalton 13 16 Andy Dalton 16
17 Carson Palmer 5 17 Tyrod Taylor 15 17 Eli Manning 23
18 Jay Cutler 21 18 Matt Ryan 3 18 Carson Wentz 8
19 C. Kaepernick 31 19 Marcus Mariota 14 19 Carson Palmer 32
20 Andy Dalton 19 20 Brock Osweiler 28 20 Alex Smith 4
If you look at the last three years data, 47 percent of quarterbacks picked in the first 10 picks actually were top-10 quarterbacks at the end of the season. This number is a little lower than you might expect. The only good news with this data that is if you take a quarterback picked in the top 20, you are likely to get a top-20 quarterback as 77 percent of quarterbacks picked in the top 20 the last three seasons finished in the top 20. But overall, this data shows that picking an elite quarterback might not be quite as easy as expected. More than half of the top-10 quarterbacks picked are misses.
Next up is the running back spot. The running back spot had a big resurgence last year, so drafts might be going a little different this year. But with that said, does the data show that going early on a running back is a smart move come draft day?
ADP 2015 RANK ADP 2016 RANK ADP 2017 RANK
1 Adrian Peterson 2 1 David Johnson 1 1 Le'Veon Bell 2
2 Le'Veon Bell 48 2 Todd Gurley 15 2 David Johnson 110
3 Eddie Lacy 32 3 Adrian Peterson 120 3 Melvin Gordon 5
4 Jamaal Charles 51 4 Ezekiel Elliott 2 4 Devonta Freeman 15
5 Marshawn Lynch 61 5 Lamar Miller 19 5 LeSean McCoy 7
6 C.J. Anderson 31 6 Le'Veon Bell 3 6 Ezekiel Elliott 12
7 Matt Forte 8 7 Devonta Freeman 6 7 Jay Ajayi 35
8 DeMarco Murray 15 8 Mark Ingram 8 8 Jordan Howard 14
9 Jeremy Hill 20 9 Eddie Lacy 75 9 DeMarco Murray 21
10 Justin Forsett 41 10 LeSean McCoy 4 10 Todd Gurley 1
11 LeSean McCoy 17 11 C.J. Anderson 46 11 Kareem Hunt 4
12 Lamar Miller 6 12 Doug Martin 54 12 Isaiah Crowell 32
13 Frank Gore 14 13 Latavius Murray 13 13 Dalvin Cook 72
14 Mark Ingram 12 14 Jamaal Charles 114 14 C. McCaffrey 9
15 Latavius Murray 10 15 Matt Forte 21 15 L. Fournette 10
16 Melvin Gordon 45 16 Carlos Hyde 18 16 Carlos Hyde 8
17 Alfred Morris 53 17 Thomas Rawls 60 17 Lamar Miller 16
18 Andre Ellington 68 18 D. Murray 5 18 Marshawn Lynch 23
19 Carlos Hyde 63 19 J. Langford 58 19 Ty Montgomery 54
20 Arian Foster 65 20 D. Woodhead 95 20 Joe Mixon 33
21 Ameer Abdullah 44 21 Melvin Gordon 7 21 Bilal Powell 30
22 J. Stewart 23 22 Jeremy Hill 22 22 Mark Ingram 6
23 Doug Martin 4 23 Ryan Mathews 29 23 C.J. Anderson 18
24 Joseph Randle 72 24 Duke Johnson 32 24 Ameer Abdullah 40
25 Todd Gurley 9 25 Giovani Bernard 40 25 Tevin Coleman 22
The numbers shows that running back is the toughest to pick out of all the positions. Over the last three seasons, just 40 percent of the top-10 running backs picked were top-10 running backs by season's end. So that means six out of the first 10 backs picked the last three years didn't live up to their draft position. And the numbers don't get any easier when it comes to top-20 backs. So 53 percent of the top-20 backs picked the last three years were top 20 at the end of the season. There were a lot of misses the last three years when it comes to running backs.
And another factor to look at is 27 percent of backs picked in the top 20 the last three years finished outside the top 50 running backs. That is a hard pill to swallow, seeing so many wasted picks at the position either because of injury or underperforming. The running back spot is a hard one to predict season after season. There is a lot of fluctuating with the position.
The receiver spot is next to examine and might surprise some of you with the results.
ADP 2015 RANK ADP 2016 RANK ADP 2017 RANK
1 Antonio Brown 1 1 Antonio Brown 1 1 Antonio Brown 2
2 Julio Jones 2 2 O. Beckham Jr. 4 2 Julio Jones 7
3 Dez Bryant 82 3 Julio Jones 6 3 O. Beckham Jr. 84
4 O. Beckham Jr. 5 4 DeAndre Hopkins 29 4 Mike Evans 17
5 D. Thomas 10 5 A.J. Green 34 5 Jordy Nelson 46
6 Calvin Johnson 12 6 Allen Robinson 26 6 A.J. Green 104
7 A.J. Green 9 7 Dez Bryant 39 7 Michael Thomas 6
8 Randall Cobb 26 8 Keenan Allen 162 8 Dez Bryant 24
9 T Y Hilton 24 9 Mike Evans 3 9 Brandin Cooks 15
10 Brandin Cooks 14 10 Jordy Nelson 2 10 Amari Cooper 36
11 Alshon Jeffery 43 11 B. Marshall 49 11 T Y Hilton 27
12 Jordan Matthews 16 12 Alshon Jeffery 55 12 Doug Baldwin 13
13 Mike Evans 22 13 Amari Cooper 15 13 Terrelle Pryor 107
14 D. Hopkins 4 14 Brandin Cooks 10 14 Keenan Allen 3
15 E. Sanders 18 15 Jarvis Landry 13 15 D. Hopkins 1
16 Davante Adams 69 16 D. Thomas 16 16 Alshon Jeffery 21
17 Jeremy Maclin 15 17 T Y Hilton 5 17 D. Thomas 16
18 Golden Tate 23 18 Sammy Watkins 92 18 Tyreek Hill 8
19 Amari Cooper 21 19 Randall Cobb 54 19 Kelvin Benjamin 47
20 Andre Johnson 58 20 Julian Edelman 14 20 Davante Adams 14
21 Julian Edelman 36 21 Jeremy Maclin 73 21 M. Crabtree 30
22 Jarvis Landry 8 22 Kelvin Benjamin 27 22 Golden Tate 11
23 Keenan Allen 42 23 Donte Moncrief 77 23 Jarvis Landry 4
24 Sammy Watkins 20 24 Eric Decker 123 24 Allen Robinson 184
25 DeSean Jackson 68 25 Golden Tate 17 25 Larry Fitzgerald 5
The receiver position has a lot more choices than any of the other positions, but even with that said, most consider the top guys pretty easy to predict every season. Not so fast. The numbers the past three seasons are pretty similar to the running back spot with 47 percent of the first 10 receivers picked finishing as top-10 fantasy receivers. Again, this is another position that roughly half of the players picked in the first 10 don't live up to their draft position.
The numbers were a little better for the top-20 receivers picked with 57 percent finishing in the top 20 the last three seasons. The misses weren't quite as frequent, showing maybe the receiver spot is just a tad easier to pick that the running back spot. The disparity in numbers is not great, though, which is likely to surprise some.
The good news is the misses aren't quite as bad with the receiver spot. Just 15 percent of the receivers picked in the top 20 were big busts, finishing outside the top 50. So even the receivers that missed the last few years didn't cause quite the headaches, finishing with decent numbers despite maybe not living up to draft expectations.
The last position we will examine is the tight end spot. Much like the quarterback spot, the position isn't quite as deep, so we won't delve too deep into the numbers.
ADP 2015 RANK ADP 2016 RANK ADP 2017 RANK
1 Rob Gronkowski 1 1 Rob Gronkowski 26 1 Rob Gronkowski 2
2 Jimmy Graham 20 2 Jordan Reed 9 2 Travis Kelce 1
3 Greg Olsen 5 3 Greg Olsen 3 3 Jordan Reed 36
4 Travis Kelce 6 4 Travis Kelce 1 4 Greg Olsen 50
5 Martellus Bennett 22 5 Delanie Walker 5 5 Jimmy Graham 7
6 Zach Ertz 9 6 Coby Fleener 15 6 Zach Ertz 3
7 Jordan Cameron 27 7 Gary Barnidge 19 7 Kyle Rudolph 8
8 Delanie Walker 3 8 Zach Ertz 6 8 Tyler Eifert 90
9 Jason Witten 10 9 Jimmy Graham 4 9 Delanie Walker 4
10 Tyler Eifert 8 10 Julius Thomas 32 10 M. Bennett 38
11 Julius Thomas 19 11 Antonio Gates 12 11 Hunter Henry 14
12 Kyle Rudolph 15 12 Tyler Eifert 25 12 Eric Ebron 13
13 Vernon Davis 33 13 M. Bennett 10 13 Jack Doyle 6
14 Owen Daniels 21 14 Eric Ebron 14 14 Coby Fleener 34
15 Coby Fleener 17 15 Dennis Pitta 8 15 Cameron Brate 10
16 Antonio Gates 12 16 Jason Witten 11 16 Jason Witten 9
17 Seferian-Jenkins 32 17 Dwayne Allen 22 17 Austin Hooper 17
18 Larry Donnell 40 18 Jared Cook 36 18 Julius Thomas 23
19 Dwayne Allen 58 19 Jack Doyle 13 19 Evan Engram 5
20 Jordan Reed 2 20 Zach Miller 20 20 Dwayne Allen 71
Out of the four positions examined, the tight end position was the easiest to pick in the top 10 the last three seasons. There were 63 percent of the tight ends picked in the top 10 that finished as top-10 tight ends. That is a pretty strong number, proving that the elite tight ends are fairly easy to predict. The misses aren't nearly as prevalent as the other positions.
The top-20 numbers were pretty similar to the top 10 at tight end but not quite as good as the quarterback spot. So 68 percent of the top-20 tight ends picked the last three seasons were top-20 tight ends at the end of the season. This is another strong number but not a surprise because the position isn't that deep and normally there aren't a ton of surprises.
In closing, no position is a sure thing. There isn't a huge disparity in all the positions except for tight end. So there are hits and misses every year at every position. The key is for you to identify the players that will be the top ones for the coming season. Sure, injuries factor into this study but many times it is performance as well. And there isn't a position out there that is a sure thing for early in your draft. You need to just take the best player that you think carries the least amount of risk come draft day and hope that plays out at season's end.
Percentage of players selected in the top 10 or 20
that finished in the top 10 or 20 at season's end
3 YR AVG
TOP 10 TOP 20
QB 47% 77%
RB 40% 53%
WR 47% 57%
TE 63% 68%