Diminished prize: NBA draft lottery holds modest value
Fri May 10 2:41pm ET
Field Level Media
Four teams enter the 2024 NBA Draft lottery on Sunday with better than 13 percent odds of landing the No. 1 pick, but the prize holds relatively modest value one year after Victor Wembanyama arrived from France.
The Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards share the top odds -- 14 percent -- ahead of the Charlotte Hornets and Portland Trail Blazers, who picked second and third behind the San Antonio Spurs last June. The Spurs scored the No. 1 pick, selected Wembanyama, and hold the fifth-best chance (10.5 percent) at getting the first overall pick in the 2024 draft via the lottery.
The 2024 NBA Draft begins June 26, with the second round held the next day.
Since the lottery rules changed in 2019, each of the four teams to win the lottery and No. 1 pick entered with 14 percent odds to land the pick. The first year under the competitive balance rules in 2020, the Timberwolves won the lottery and selected Georgia's Anthony Edwards.
While any team in the NBA would've welcomed a chance to bring Edwards or Wembanyama on board, there's a bit of a red-headed stepchild narrative around the 2024 draft class.
The order of draft selections for lottery teams -- the 14 teams not in the NBA playoffs -- will be assigned mid-afternoon (3 p.m. ET, ABC) on Mother's Day. Final positioning in the lottery was determined after the regular season based on record with the NBA settling tiebreaks involving teams with identical regular-season records.
Detroit drafted first overall in 2021 (Cade Cunningham) and fifth in 2022 (Jaden Ivey) and 2023 (Ausar Thompson). The Pistons find themselves back in this position following a league-worst 14-68 finish to the regular season.
Equal chances for the No. 1 pick belong to the Wizards. Washington last won the lottery in 2010, selecting Kentucky point guard John Wall.
The Hornets picked first once -- in 1991, when they selected UNLV's Larry Johnson -- but have drafted outside of the lottery only once in the past 23 years. Charlotte selected Brandon Miller No. 2 overall in 2023 and LaMelo Ball with the third pick in 2020.
Greg Oden was the Trail Blazers' pick at No. 1 in 2007 and Portland hasn't been back in the top spot since. Point guard Scoot Henderson went at No. 3 to Portland in 2023. Kentucky shooting guard Shaedon Sharpe (seventh overall, 2022) and Lehigh guard CJ McCollum (10th overall, 2013) were the only other top-10 draft picks for the franchise since Oden.
Sporting the best record in the West in the regular season and playing in the conference semifinals, trade-happy Oklahoma City maintains two chances in the lottery as owed compensation in previous swaps with the Utah Jazz (6 percent chance at No. 1 pick) and Houston Rockets (1.5 percent odds at No. 1 pick). Because of pick protections placed on the trade, the Thunder would receive Utah's selection only if it's Nos. 11-14.
Likewise, the pick from Houston is protected -- meaning the Rockets can push the trade to next year -- if it's in the top four.
The Spurs could score a second lottery pick as part of the return due from the Toronto Raptors for acquiring Jakob Poeltl.
- NBA roundup: Pascal Siakam's 3 pushes Pacers past Celtics in OT
- Lakers' LeBron James (illness) probable in return to Cleveland
- Raptors' Scottie Barnes has orbital bone fracture, out 3 weeks
- Bulls G Lonzo Ball (wrist) sidelined at least 10 days
- NBA roundup: Nuggets outlast Nets for 2nd straight OT win
- Jazz F Lauri Markkanen (back) listed as day-to-day
- Bulls G Lonzo Ball (wrist) out at least four games
- Hawks G Bogdan Bogdanovic (hamstring) out at least a month
- Warriors F Andrew Wiggins (back) out vs. Pelicans
- 76ers fined $100k for misleading statements on Joel Embiid status
- Raptors exercise options for Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick
- Lakers C Christian Koloko cleared to return
- Rudy Gay retires after 17 seasons with five NBA teams
- NBA roundup: Magic's Paolo Banchero pours in 50 vs. Pacers
- Jazz F Taylor Hendricks fractures fibula, dislocates ankle
- 76ers' Joel Embiid hit with postgame tech for free throw distraction
- Warriors G Stephen Curry (ankle) out at least 2 games
- Warriors G Stephen Curry (ankle) could miss several games
- NBA roundup: 76ers knock off Pacers in OT for first win of season
- Heat honor Dwyane Wade by unveiling statue outside arena
Memphis Grizzlies forward/center Santi Aldama and small forward Jaylen Wells will join the starting lineup for Thursday's game against Milwaukee. The duo replaces Marcus Smart (ankle) and Desmond Bane (oblique), who were injured in Wednesday's 119-106 loss to Brooklyn. Aldama will make his fourth start of the campaign, while Wells joins the first unit for the first time in his young career. In his previous three starts, Aldama has averaged 13.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.0 blocks. The injuries to Smart and Bane will likely also result in increased usage for Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr.
Houston Rockets center Steven Adams (knee, calf) will be in the lineup on Thursday versus Dallas. He has shaken off a questionable designation ahead of the game. Adams made his Houston debut earlier in the week with a six-point, three-rebound effort across 14 minutes against San Antonio. He will struggle to put up meaningful fantasy production as Alperen Sengun's backup. As a result of Adams' return, Jock Landale is in danger of dropping out of the rotation.
Memphis Grizzlies guard/forward John Konchar (quadriceps) has been ruled out for Thursday's matchup against Milwaukee. He was back from a two-game absence on Wednesday versus Brooklyn, but Kochar is battling a quadriceps contusion and will step aside once again. The 28-year-old has averaged 5.0 points and 4.7 rebounds in 19.0 minutes this season. His absence is another blow for the team after Marcus Smart (ankle) and Desmond Bane (oblique) were already ruled out earlier. Memphis' bench mob appears set to play a large role in Thursday's contest, with so many regulars out.
Memphis Grizzlies guard/forward Desmond Bane (oblique) will sit out Thursday's action against Milwaukee. Bane has landed on the shelf after suffering an oblique strain against Brooklyn on Wednesday. The 26-year-old has shot an impressive 40.6 percent from deep through the first few games of the season to average 18.8 points with 5.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Memphis also lost Marcus Smart (ankle) on Wednesday, meaning it's again time for fantasy managers to put their trust in Jake LaRavia and Scotty Pippen Jr. The two performed well last season when the Grizzlies were troubled by injuries. Rookie Jaylen Wells is also a player to keep an eye on.
Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen (back) has been ruled out for Thursday's tilt against San Antonio. Back spasms limited Markkanen to only 17 minutes last time out against Sacramento, and the team will keep him out of action on Thursday after initially listing him as questionable for the game. Utah's frontcourt has also lost Taylor Hendricks (lower leg) this week, leaving Kyle Filipowski and John Collins in a position to benefit. Filipowski flirted with a double-double on Tuesday versus the Kings when he finally received a good chunk of minutes. Collins has been limited to a bench role this season but has been productive with 14.8 points and 6.3 rebounds in 21.0 minutes.
Memphis Grizzlies guard Marcus Smart (ankle) will not play against Milwaukee on Thursday. Smart injured his right ankle on Wednesday versus Brooklyn, exiting the contest after logging only six minutes. The team is awaiting imaging results to determine the severity of Smart's injury. The veteran guard has had an awful time on the offensive end early in the season, shooting only 23.5 percent from the field, but his defensive ability will be a massive miss for the team. Scotty Pippen Jr. and Jaylen Wells are in line to see additional playing time on Thursday, with the Grizzlies lineup thin because of injuries.
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) will play against Memphis on Thursday. The former MVP has been a regular on the injury report with right patella tendinitis, but the team has upgraded him from probable to available. The injury hasn't really limited Antetokounmpo, who has kicked off the 2024-25 campaign with four consecutive double-doubles. He has averaged 28.6 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 6.3 assists. With Khris Middleton (ankle) out of the lineup, Antetokounmpo is expected to have another big night, as he needs to do extra to help the team get back on track following a 1-3 start.
Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (knee) is set to have "periodic" spells on the sidelines this season. Speaking during an appearance on SportsCenter, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that Philadelphia plans to keep Embiid healthy for the playoffs by giving him "periodic time off at different points during the season." The former MVP is set to have routine check-ups on his knee, and this is going to be the "new normal" for Embiid. The 76ers superstar has yet to play this season but has completed multiple five-on-five scrimmages during a ramp-up process and could be available as soon as this weekend.
Phoenix Suns guard Bradley Beal (elbow) has landed back on the injury report ahead of Thursday's clash with the Clippers. After missing one game with a sore elbow, the veteran star returned to action against the Lakers on Monday. But he could be back on the shelf again on Thursday with the elbow issue, with the team tagging him as questionable for the game. Ryan Dunn was filling in for Beal in the starting unit and produced a 13-point effort on Saturday versus Dallas. Royce O'Neale and Damion Lee are also in a position to benefit if Beal is out on Thursday.
Memphis Grizzlies guard Marcus Smart (ankle) saw only six minutes of action in Wednesday's loss to Brooklyn. Smart rolled his right ankle and exited the contest without scoring any points. Memphis also lost Desmond Bane (oblique) in the contest, which opened up tons of minutes for the reserves. Scotty Pippen Jr. and Jake LaRavia have led the second unit for Memphis this season. There could also be additional minutes available for Jaylen Wells and John Konchar if Smart and Bane sit out Thursday's matchup against Milwaukee.
Chicago Bulls guard/forward Zach LaVine injured his left shoulder in Wednesday's 102-99 victory over Orlando. Speaking after the game, LaVine told reporters that he suffered a "subluxation" in his shoulder. He added that he had X-rays done, and everything was "OK." LaVine played through the injury on Wednesday but finished with only 11 points in 36 minutes. He shot 2-for-9 from the field. On the positive side, LaVine was able to tally his first double-double of the season by grabbing 10 rebounds. The Bulls star also recorded three assists. LaVine didn't seem too concerned about his shoulder injury on Wednesday, but the games are coming thick and fast, and it remains to be seen if he's available for Friday's contest against Brooklyn. Ayo Dosunmu and Dalen Terry should see additional playing time if LaVine lands on the shelf.
Memphis Grizzlies guard/forward Desmond Bane sustained an oblique injury in Wednesday's 119-106 loss to Brooklyn. The 26-year-old played only 17 minutes, scoring 10 points and grabbing six rebounds. Memphis is scheduled to finish off a back-to-back against Milwaukee on Thursday, and fantasy managers will need to monitor Bane's status closely. Scotty Pippen Jr., John Konchar, and Jaylen Wells could see more action without Bane. Pippen Jr. has proven himself as the best fantasy option of the three.
New Orleans Pelicans center Daniel Theis suffered an ankle injury in Wednesday's game against Golden State. He had soaked in just five minutes of action before hurting his right ankle. The German big man finished the contest scoreless while recording three rebounds. Theis has kicked off the year as New Orleans' starting center, averaging 4.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks in 16.0 minutes. Yves Missi will be in line for more playing time if Theis has to miss additional time, although the rookie himself battled a hip problem on Wednesday. With two bigs limited by health issues, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl logged a season-high 23 minutes. He had nine points with five rebounds and three assists. Robinson-Earl could be a speculative add for fantasy managers if Missi joins Theis on the sidelines.
Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner left a second consecutive game early due to an illness on Wednesday. He logged 23 minutes in a 102-99 loss to Chicago, scoring seven points while registering three rebounds, four assists, one steal, and one block. The German star was limited to 11 minutes on Monday versus Indiana. Fantasy managers are currently in a tough spot regarding Wagner, but hopefully, he can fully shake off the illness before the next game. Orlando returns to the court on Friday against Cleveland.
New York's C Karl-Anthony Towns recorded a double-double, scoring 44 points and grabbing 13 rebounds in a 116-107 win over Miami on Wednesday, Oct. 30.
Toronto Raptors' G Gradey Dick scored 30 points on 11-of-17 shooting in a 133-138 loss to Charlotte on Wednesday, Oct. 30. Dick is owned in only 15.4% leagues.
According to Dalton Johnson of NBC Sports Bay Area, Golden State Warriors forward Andrew Wiggins (back) is unavailable for Wednesday's contest with the New Orleans Pelicans. Wiggins is dealing with a lower back strain that will keep him out of the lineup for the second consecutive contest. With the 29-year-old missing in action, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, and Jonathan Kuminga will take on extra minutes for the second straight game.
According to Tony Jones of The Athletic, Utah Jazz power forward Lauri Markkanen is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the San Antonio Spurs. On Tuesday versus Sacramento, Markkanen left the game with back spasms. Despite the setback, he's averaged 18.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists in the season's first four games. Fantasy managers, if the 27-year-old cannot suit up, forwards John Collins and Kyle Filipowski will likely see more minutes on the court than usual.
Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal reports that Memphis Grizzlies guardJohn Konchar (foot) will suit up against the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday. Konchar has missed two consecutive contests due to right foot soreness. The Grizzlies are in the front half of aback-to-back set, so his workload will likely be limited. Ja Morant (thigh) was also cleared to play and will join Konchar in the team's backcourt.
Memphis Grizzlies guardJa Morant(thigh) is available to suit up against the Brooklyn Nets on Wednesday, per Damichael Cole of The Memphis Commercial Appeal. He was listed as questionable earlier today and will return from a one-game absence due to right thigh soreness. The 25-year-old has posted two double-doubles through his first three games, averaging 20.7 points, 7.3 assists and 2.3 rebounds in 25.7 minutes per contest.