Warriors-Rockets G7: Preview, Odds & Prop Picks
Sun May 4 3:31pm ET
Field Level Media
The critical junctures during which the Houston Rockets stumbled in this Western Conference first-round series were routinely and rightfully chalked up to their collective playoff inexperience.
But as the series extended, the Rockets settled in. A blowout victory at home in Game 5 shifted the series back to the Bay Area, and when the Golden State Warriors -- and not the Rockets -- came apart down the stretch in Game 6, it showcased just how far Houston has come in a short period.
The Rockets' 115-107 victory on Friday evened the best-of-seven series and set the stage for Game 7 at 8:30 p.m. ET in Houston on Sunday. The Rockets turned an 86-84 lead entering the fourth quarter into a 17-point cushion with 4:40 left and confirmed that they were no longer nervous.
"Obviously, Game 1 was full of jitters," said veteran Rockets guard Fred VanVleet, who posted 29 points, eight rebounds and eight assists in Game 6. "Game 3 was similar being on the road for the first time. Once you get that initial shock out of the way, being able to settle in and play basketball the way we've played all year and we have been one of the better teams all year. Just being able to execute and play our game at a high enough level."
THE ODDS
The Rockets were a consensus 2.0-point favorite as of mid-day Sunday. However, the line was holding at 2.5 at both DraftKings and BetMGM, where the Warriors had drawn 64 percent of the spread-line money while the total bets were nearly split.
The Over on the low 205.5 total points line was among the most popular plays, drawing 92 percent of the money and 87 percent of the total bets since opening at 200.5.
PROP PICKS
--Fred VanVleet Under 17.5 Points (-115 at BetMGM): The Rockets' guard has averaged 19.0 points through the first six games of the series, and has been instrumental in Houston staying alive with 26 and 29 points in the past two games. However, VanVleet averaged only 11.3 points through the first three games of the series.
--Stephen Curry Over 20 Points (-575 at DraftKings): The payout here isn't enticing, but that hasn't stopped this from being the most bet NBA player prop at the book on Sunday. Curry is averaging 24.3 points through the first six games and is coming off a 29-point effort in Golden State's Game 6 loss. You can bet Curry isn't going down without his best fight.
THE NEWS
At first blush, the Warriors would appear to have the advantage on Sunday. Curry and Draymond Green have played in five Game 7s each, while Jimmy Butler has participated in four. VanVleet, Steven Adams and Dillon Brooks provide playoff mettle for the Rockets, but the remainder of their core will experience their first Game 7. Emotionally, the Rockets will have a steep hill to ascend.
To their benefit is a defensive might that hasn't vacated them in moments, good or bad.
"Defense travels, and our awareness and physicality has improved in the series," Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. "And in general, our young guys are not really fazed by things. They just continue to play through it. They have really good veterans that steady them at times."
Instead of shying away from the physical play, the Rockets have embraced it and put the Warriors on their heels. Golden State has one more chance to prove that experience matters.
"Just got to meet force with force, execute the game plan," Green said. "Everybody will be excited. It will be hyped in there. It will be loud. Then the game starts, and there's just basketball. You got to execute your game plan, stay the course."
THEY SAID IT
"Staying together will not be an issue. This team has been connected and has been through everything. There's no question the frustration (Friday) set in. I could see it -- the body language. We can't have that. We can't afford that in Game 7.
"We've got to stay tight whole way through. Like I said, I like our chances. I've seen what this group can do over the years. We've been in a lot of Game 7s, I believe, had a lot of success." --Warriors coach Steve Kerr
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According to Law Murray of The Athletic, Los Angeles Clippers guard James Harden is expected to remain with the team. Harden has a $36 million player option for the 2025-26 campaign, although it's realistic both sides will work on a new contact over the summer. The 35-year-old had only seven points in the series-clinching, Game 7 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Saturday night. Still, he is coming off another quality year, averaging 22.8 points, 8.7 assists, and 1.5 steals in 79 games while being named an All-Star for the seventh time of his career. Without question, Harden should continue to receive attention from fantasy managers heading into next season, and he should remain a top fantasy option, regardless of how the Clippers do in the standings, assuming he stays in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Clippers center Ivica Zubac had a double-double in Saturday's loss to the Nuggets, ending the night with 10 points and 14 rebounds. Still, it wasn't good enough, with the Clippers losing a decisive Game 7 and failing to advance to the Western Conference semi-finals to face the Oklahoma City Thunder. From a statistical standpoint, Zubac had a stellar 2024-25 campaign, amassing career-highs in points (16.8), rebounds (12.6), assists (2.7), and games (80). With that said, his stock is higher than ever, and it's possible he earns serious consideration for an All-Star selection next season.
Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard scored 22 points in Saturday's playoff loss to the Nuggets. He added five rebounds, two assists, and two blocks. The two-time NBA Champion had a fantastic series. Unfortunately, his efforts weren't enough, with the Clippers falling short of advancing to the Western Conference semi-finals to meet OKC. Statistically speaking, Leonard played as well as expected during the regular season, averaging 21.5 points, 5.9 boards, and 1.6 steals while shooting 41.1% from behind the arc. However, he was limited to only 37 games because of a knee injury. Leonard is one of the best players in the NBA. But the question moving ahead is if he can stay healthy in 2025-26. If he does, he should re-enter the All-Star conversation.
Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic had 16 points in Saturday's series-clinching win over the Clippers. He added 10 boards, eight assists, three steals, and one block. The three-time MVP accumulated five fouls through the first three quarters, resulting in more time spent on the bench. However, with Denver building a decisive lead, Jokic wasn't needed much in the fourth quarter. With the Nuggets dispatching the Clippers in seven games, the team will hit the road for a meeting with OKC on Monday night to begin the Western Conference semi-finals. In four meetings with the Thunder this season, Jokic averaged 24.5 points, 15.8 rebounds, 11.5 dimes, 1.8 blocks, and 1.5 steals. He also shot 52.6% from the field, one of his worst averages against any club during the year.
Los Angeles Clippers guard James Harden had only seven points in Saturday's postseason loss to Denver. However, he made up for it by amassing 13 assists, two steals, and one block. Although Los Angeles couldn't advance to the Western Conference semi-finals to face Oklahoma City, Harden can look back on another quality year, averaging 22.8 points, 8.7 dimes, and 1.5 steals. He also appeared in 79 games and was named an All-Star for the seventh time of his career. The 35-year-old will next need to decide if he will exercise his $36 million player option heading into the 2025-26 campaign. But one thing is for sure, Harden should see plenty of interest from clubs around the National Basketball Association this summer if he doesn't. Either way, he is expected to remain a top fantasy option, although he may only have a few more productive years left in the tank.
Boston Celtics guard Jrue Holiday (hamstring) was a full participant in Saturday's practice. "He was able to do everything that we worked on. He is getting better every day," Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla said. This is a very encouraging development regarding Holiday's potential return to action for Game 1 versus the New York Knicks on Monday. He missed the final three games of Boston's first-round series against the Orlando Magic due to a hamstring strain. Before getting hurt, Holiday notched 10.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game at the start of the postseason. His return to the lineup is set to send Al Horford back to the bench, although the veteran big man should remain an important part of the rotation.
Cleveland Cavaliers point guard Darius Garland (toe) is listed as questionable for Sunday's Game 1 against the Indiana Pacers. The Cavaliers lost their starting point guard for the final two games of the first-round series against the Miami Heat and may still be without him as the second round begins. Garland, who has averaged 24.0 points and 7.0 assists in the playoffs, is trying to shake off a left great toe sprain. Sam Merrill has started in Garland's absence, while Ty Jerome has seen increased usage off the bench. Despite the starting role, Merrill has not made a positive impact for DFS managers, averaging 4.5 points and 1.5 rebounds since Garland went down.
Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard (Achilles) underwent surgery on Friday to repair a torn left Achilles sustained during a postseason loss to the Indiana Pacers. There is no timetable for his return. The multi-time All-Star averaged 24.9 points in his second season with the Bucks, up from the 2023-24 campaign. Unfortunately, it wasn't nearly as close to the career-high 32.2 points he averaged in his final year in Portland. It's unknown how the Milwaukee roster will look moving ahead. It's also not clear if Lillard has already played his final game with the Bucks. With that in mind, his redraft value can't get any lower heading into next season. However, dynasty managers should avoid any low-ball offers, especially since Lillard could have at least a few more productive years left in the tank once he's cleared to get back on the floor.
New York's G Jalen Brunson scored 40 points on 15-of-33 shooting in a 116-113 win over Detroit on Thursday, May. 1.
Detroit Pistons forward/center Isaiah Stewart (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's Game 6 against the New York Knicks. He will miss a fifth consecutive game after being labeled questionable on the initial injury report. The Pistons must win on Thursday for Stewart to have a chance to return to action this season. He has played an important role as a reserve, averaging 6.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks during the regular season. In the series opener against the Knicks, when Stewart was in the lineup, he recorded two points, five rebounds, and two blocks in 19 minutes.
Houston Rockets guard/forward Amen Thompson has his fingerprints all over Wednesday's Game 5 victory over the Golden State Warriors, racking up 25 points, six rebounds, three assists, five steals, and three blocks. Thompson, who finished with 8-for-12 shooting, played a key role in limiting the Warriors to 49 first-half points. The visitors improved in the second half, but Houston still picked up a comfortable 131-116 win. This was without a doubt Thompson's best performance of the series, and it's sure to be a confidence booster for him ahead of another elimination game on Friday night. The 22-year-old has averaged 14.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.0 blocks, and 1.6 steals in his first career postseason campaign.
Golden State Warriors point guard Stephen Curry produced only 13 points as the team failed to finish off the Houston Rockets on Wednesday night, losing Game 5 131-116 on the road. Curry and Jimmy Butler III both had zero points after the first quarter, as the Warriors struggled to cope with Houston's high-intensity defense. The two superstars ended up combining for 21 points in the game, with Curry shooting 4-for-12 from the field and 3-for-9 from behind the arc. He had seven assists with three turnovers and grabbed three rebounds in 23 minutes. Golden State's starters were embarrassed on Wednesday night, and we should see a reaction from them in Game 6 on home court Friday night.
Minnesota Timberwolves guard/forward Anthony Edwards had a miserable offensive outing in Wednesday's Game 5 against the Los Angeles Lakers, but the team still managed to end the series with a 103-96 road win. Edwards went 0-for-11 with the three-ball and 5-for-19 overall from the field. However, despite his struggles on the offensive end, the Timberwolves superstar almost had a triple-double. He was among the top rebounders in the game with 11 boards and dished out eight assists. Defensively, Edwards contributed three steals, and he didn't register a single turnover in 43 minutes on the floor. Edwards and the Timberwolves have now taken down Kevin Durant and LeBron James in the first round in back-to-back years. He will be fired up against anyone in his path and will enter the second round averaging 26.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.2 steals this postseason.
Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert feasted against the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night, finishing a 103-96 Game 5 victory with a team-high 27 points and a game-high 24 rebounds. The Lakers lacked size, and Gobert capitalized on this, adding two blocks to his tally with 12-for-15 shooting from the field. In the first four games of the series, Gobert had managed only 14 total points with 25 rebounds, making it a true case of a sleeping giant awakening. If the Timberwolves can receive similar contributions from Gobert moving forward, the 2024-25 campaign might hold something very special for the squad.
Los Angeles Lakers point guard Luka Doncic injured his back in Wednesday's Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves but still finished a 103-96 loss as the game's leading scorer. He put up 28 points with 7-for-18 shooting from the field and a 12-for-15 effort at the line. In his final appearance of the 2024-25 campaign, Doncic also had seven rebounds, nine assists, and one steal. After competing in the 2024 NBA Finals with the Dallas Mavericks, Doncic's season turned out to be a disappointment. He finished the first-round series with averages of 30.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists. In 28 regular-season outings with the Lakers, Doncic notched 28.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game. Despite dealing with health issues, Doncic continues to put up big numbers and is expected to do so again in the 2025-26 season. However, fantasy managers will certainly want to get more than 50 games out of him.
Los Angeles Clippers forward Derrick Jones Jr. (knee) is not listed on the injury report for Thursday's Game 6 against the Denver Nuggets. He appeared to have suffered a knee injury late in Game 5, but it seems that it was not a serious issue. Jones Jr. had a solid regular season with the Clippers, but his production has declined in the playoffs. The former NBA Slam Dunk Contest champion has averaged 6.2 points and 1.8 rebounds in 19.0 minutes. Over the past two games, Jones Jr. has logged only 29 total minutes, suggesting that Clippers head coach Tyronn Lue has begun to lose trust in him.
Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James is not ready to commit to Year 23 in the National Basketball Association after seeing his 2024-25 campaign end with a 4-1 first-round loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves. "I don't know," James said when asked how much longer he planned to play. "I don't have an answer to that. Something I'll sit down with my family, my wife and my support group and kind of just talk through it and see what happens. And just have a conversation with myself on how long I want to continue to play." James turned 40 in December but remained productive throughout the campaign, averaging 24.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.2 assists during the regular season. Although his value has declined in recent years, James is still among the top fantasy producers in the game.
Los Angeles Lakers forward/center Maxi Kleber (foot) will be available to make his team debut on Wednesday night against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Kleber underwent right foot surgery before his move to L.A. and has been sidelined for 43 games. The Lakers will have an additional frontcourt option with Kleber. Given that starting center Jaxson Hayes has averaged just 7.8 minutes per game in the series, Lakers head coach JJ Redick may consider trying something different against Minnesota. However, it's unlikely that Kleber will become a significant part of the rotation.
Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga (illness) will be inactive on Wednesday against the Houston Rockets. He was a late addition to the injury report due to illness. This is unlikely to affect the Warriors much, as Kuminga has not been part of the regular rotation. He has made two playoff appearances because of Jimmy Butler III's pelvic injury, averaging 9.0 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists in 21.5 minutes. Quinten Post has primarily provided backup for the frontcourt.
Golden State Warriors forward Jimmy Butler III (pelvis) is good to go for Wednesday's Game 5 against the Houston Rockets. According to Anthony Slater of The Athletic, Warriors head coach Steve Kerr told reporters during his pregame press conference that Butler is "doing fine" and is "ready to play." The Warriors have listed the veteran forward as probable on the injury report. Kerr's remarks indicate that he will be upgraded to available before tip-off. Despite dealing with a pelvic contusion, Butler III delivered a high-level performance in Game 4 and is expected to do the same on Wednesday night, as the Warriors aim to close out the series.
