Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 3
Pittsburgh Steelers kicker Chris Boswell converted on two of his three field goal attempts and both of his extra-point tries in a 20-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Boswell, whose career-long field goal is 59 yards, had his first miss of the season come on a 62-yard attempt at the end of the first half. The 33-year-old reached an impressive benchmark on Sunday, becoming the second player in Steelers team history to reach 1,000 career points. Boswell is one of the most reliable kickers in the NFL, but high-end fantasy production will likely come on an inconsistent basis. He'll be a viable streaming option next week against the Indianapolis Colts.
From RotoBaller
Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (foot) will undergo an MRI. The 28-year-old has battled a foot injury, although he's been playing through it. Despite that, he's been a reliable defender for the Browns this season, totaling two sacks in the team's first two contests. But the results of the MRI will determine if Garrett can continue to play. If the veteran doesn't receive good news after the MRI, he may not be available for IDP managers for a while. With the Browns sitting on one win through the first three games of the 2024-25 campaign, being without Garrett obviously wouldn't be ideal.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth caught four of his five targets for 33 yards in a home win against the Los Angeles Chargers. For a third consecutive week to start the season, Freiermuth finished with four receptions but less than 40 yards. Although he clearly has a prominent role in offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's system, it hasn't yet amounted to much in the way of fantasy production. Nonetheless, a tight end with this level of usage cannot be ignored. Fantasy managers can continue to view Freiermuth as a middling option with a high floor in PPR formats against the Indianapolis Colts next week.
From RotoBaller
The Green Bay Packers defense and special teams unit were fantastic as they shut down the Tennessee Titans' offense in the Packers' 30-14 win in Week 3. The Packers forced two interceptions, including a return for a touchdown by Jaire Alexander at the end of the first quarter. The defense repeatedly got to Titans' quarterback Will Levis for a whopping eight sacks and a forced fumble and recovery on the afternoon. It was a banner day for the Packers' D/ST as they'll assuredly be one of the top-scoring fantasy D/ST units of Week 3. The Packers will head back home to face the Minnesota Vikings but will be a streaming fantasy defensive option in that game with the Vikings showing some potency with quarterback Sam Darnold at the helm.
From RotoBaller
The Los Angeles Chargers defense had a pedestrian performance in a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chargers defensive unit allowed 20 points while recording one interception and two sacks. In standard defensive scoring leagues, that was good for just four fantasy points. It was one of those games where the defense looked pretty good on the field but just didn't do the things that earn fantasy points along the way. They'll be a somewhat less recommended fantasy option in Week 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs, especially if Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) is forced to miss the game.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Calvin Austin III shined with four receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown in a 20-10 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. Austin showed true potential as a WR2 for the Steelers, especially with Van Jefferson (eye) missing most of the contest. He trailed only George Pickens in targets with five and flashed his impressive speed when taking a short pass from quarterback Justin Fields 55 yards to the end zone for his first score of the season. Most fantasy managers should monitor Austin's involvement in the coming weeks, but he could be an intriguing waiver-wire addition immediately in deeper leagues. He'll look to carry some positive momentum into a Week 4 matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers running back Emanuel Wilson turned a quality game for the Packers in their 30-14 victory against the Tennessee Titans in Week 3. Wilson led the running backs in rushing yards with 50 on 12 carries, while bringing in both targets for 35 yards and a touchdown. Wilson's touchdown came on a screen pass where he weaved his way behind his blockers and then used his speed to scamper 30 yards for the touchdown. With MarShawn Lloyd (ankle) placed on injured reserve, Wilson is the primary backup behind Josh Jacobs. The Packers have employed a run-heavy approach in the last couple of games with Malik Willis installed as quarterback. Wilson has standalone value in deeper fantasy leagues for Week 4 against Minnesota but is more of a contingency fantasy play in case something happens to Jacobs. That said, if Wilson continues to siphon off more work from Jacobs in the Packers' backfield, Wilson could be a sneaky startable fantasy option.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins caught six passes for 73 yards and a touchdown in a loss to Green Bay. The performance was a welcome sight for fantasy managers, as Hopkins had only mustered two catches for seventeen yards over the first two weeks to start the year. "Nuk" was targeted seven times on the afternoon, which led all Titans pass catchers. Calvin Ridley had been the favorite target of Levis up to this point, but Hopkins took that crown against Green Bay, snagging passes all over the field including an 11-yard touchdown pass in the 3rd quarter. Hopkins will look to build on this promising performance next week at Miami.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver George Pickens recorded five receptions for 57 yards on seven looks in the team's Week 3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Pickens continued to operate as the clear WR1 in Pittsburgh despite being out-gained by teammate Calvin Austin III and dropping a pass on third down in the second quarter. Once again, the 23-year-old displayed chemistry with quarterback Justin Fields, leading the team in targets and earning an opportunity near the end zone. Through three weeks of the season, Pickens appears to be on the cusp of a breakout campaign. He'll hope to strike paydirt for the first time this year next week against the Indianapolis Colts.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston scored another touchdown in a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Johnston's touchdown was the only one the Chargers scored in a slow offensive game. He was targeted twice and caught both for a total of 44 yards, including his 27-yard touchdown reception in the first quarter. The Chargers offense only completed 14 passes, with Johnston tying for the team lead in receiving yards along with Ladd McConkey. Johnston looks like he's a completely different player than he was last season, and his fantasy arrow is certainly pointing way up even though Justin Herbert (ankle) may be forced to miss some time.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey led the team in targets and tied for the team lead in catches in a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Chargers offense was significantly slowed by the Steelers defense after two strong weeks to start the season. McConkey was targeted six times, making three catches for 44 yards. No other Charger had more than three targets, and he tied with Quentin Johnston with the 44 yards for the team lead. The Chargers ended up only completing 14 passes in this game, so McConkey's production was decent given the circumstances. The Chargers will face off against the Chiefs next week, possibly without starting quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle).
From RotoBaller
Seattle Seahawks defensive end Leonard Williams (ribs) returned to the game against the Miami Dolphins. After exiting in the first quarter, Williams was announced to be able to return in the second quarter. It is great news for the Seahawks' defense and it will help the offense by extension. The Seahawks D/ST is currently having a solid outing against a Miami Dolphins team without starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion).
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers kicker Cameron Dicker made both of his kicks in a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Dicker attempted one field goal and one extra point, making both, with his field goal coming from 28 yards out in the second quarter. It was a slow game for the Chargers offense as a whole, limiting Dicker's chances. He and the Chargers will take on the Kansas City Chiefs next week, possibly without starting quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle).
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (knee) didn't do much in a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, then was forced to leave early after aggravating his ankle injury. Herbert attempted 18 passes, completing 12 of them for 125 yards and a touchdown. He recorded one rush attempt, but did not gain any yardage. Herbert's touchdown went to Quentin Johnston in the first quarter to open the scoring, but the Chargers offense couldn't get much done after that, especially after Herbert limped off the field. It's unclear if he'll be able to start next week against the Chiefs, Taylor Heinicke would be in line for the start if Herbert misses time.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle) was spotted in a walking boot following the Chargers' loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Herbert entered Week 3 with a high-ankle sprain and aggravated the injury midway through the game. After the game, Herbert did mention that he is hopeful to be able to play in Week 4. Prior to his exit, Herbert had thrown for 125 yards and a touchdown. Herbert was replaced by Taylor Heinicke who completed both of his passes for 24 yards. If Herbert is forced to miss time with this injury, it would be a huge blow to the Chargers offense. The offense already struggled with Herbert in the lineup against a talented Steelers defense. The loss of Herbert would affect the Chargers' pass catchers and running backs in fantasy. For now, fantasy managers should monitor the situation.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins was slowed down by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a Week 3 loss. Dobbins ran the ball 15 times, gaining 44 yards. He added three catches on three targets, gaining an additional 10 yards. His 18 touches were by far the most in the Chargers backfield, as Gus Edwards was second with just three. Dobbins has clearly taken over the RB1 role for the Chargers and will certainly have bigger weeks than this very tough matchup in a low scoring game. Dobbins and the Chargers will face the Kansas City Chiefs next week, possibly without starting quarterback Justin Herbert (ankle).
From RotoBaller
Green Bay Packers kicker Brayden Narveson was perfect on the day in the Packers' 30-14 victory against the Titans in Week 3. Narveson booted home all three field goal attempts from 21, 26, and 47 yards and converted all three extra-point attempts. The Packers' offense is plenty potent enough no matter who is starting at quarterback, which is always a great thing for fantasy kickers. With three consecutive double-digit fantasy scoring games to start his NFL career, Narveson is quickly ascending the ranks of fantasy kickers and should now be considered a solid starting option going forward.
From RotoBaller
Los Angeles Chargers running back Gus Edwards barely touched the ball in a Week 3 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In a 20-10 loss, Edwards ran the ball just three times, gaining a total of nine yards. He was not targeted in the passing game. The Bolts ran the ball 20 times, with J.K. Dobbins getting 15 of those rushes. Dobbins has clearly taken over the RB1 role in this backfield, leaving Edwards to a backup and likely goal line role. He'll have some boom weeks if game situation gets him in the red zone, but he's no more than a dart throw FLEX play most weeks.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields completed 25 of 32 attempts for 245 yards, one touchdown, and one interception while rushing for six yards and a score in a win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Outside of a turnover coming off a deflected pass, Fields was incredibly effective under center, leading Pittsburgh to its first 3-0 start since 2020. The 25-year-old completed each of his first 10 throws and scrambled into the end zone early in the second quarter. While George Pickens remained his favorite target, it was wideout Calvin Austin III on the receiving end of Fields' touchdown pass, a strike over the middle of the field taken 55 yards to the house. Fields is looking increasingly comfortable in offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's system and should be viewed as a high-end QB2 in fantasy for as long as he keeps the starting gig.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans running back Tony Pollard ran six times for 14 yards, adding three receptions for 15 yards in a loss to Green Bay. It was a putrid fantasy day for the former Cowboy, who was looking like a great value in the later rounds of drafts after being featured heavily in Weeks 1-2. Game script definitely played a huge part in the low volume for Pollard, as the Titans went down very early and were forced to rely on the arm of quarterback Will Levis, which did not get them very far. Green Bay had been weak against the run coming into this game, but completely dominated the Titans up front, which did not bode well for Pollard. He will look to bounce back in Week 4 vs. Miami.
From RotoBaller
