Lineup Prep: Championship Games
Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Gibbs can produce big this week
Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.
Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.
I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.
Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.
I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.
I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!
The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.
I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.
News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.
HOT PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.
COLD PLAYS
Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.
Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.
SLEEPERS
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.
Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
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- Dolphins’ Skylar Thompson suffers chest injury, Tim Boyle in at QB
- Eagles WR DeVonta Smith (concussion) leveled by fierce hit
- Chargers QB Justin Herbert (ankle) questionable to return against Steelers
- All-Pro OL Lane Johnson of Eagles, Erik McCoy of Saints out with injuries
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- Chargers QB Justin Herbert (ankle) active vs. Steelers
- Mercury Morris, RB from 1972 undefeated team, dies at 77
- 49ers star TE George Kittle (hamstring) ruled out vs. Rams
- Texans RB Joe Mixon (ankle) out vs. Vikings
- Jets RT Morgan Moses out 2-4 weeks
- Jaguars coach: TE Evan Engram 'probably' out vs. Bills
- Raiders DE Malcolm Koonce (knee) out for season
- Steelers RT Troy Fautanu (knee) out Sunday, likely longer
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) set to make season debut
- 49ers star TE George Kittle (hamstring) could sit out vs. Rams
- Bucs All-Pro S Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot) out for 2nd straight game
- Giants' Brian Burns (groin) questionable to face Browns
- Packers QB Jordan Love questionable, 'working through' medicals
- Texans RBs Joe Mixon doubtful, Dameon Pierce out vs. Vikings
- Vikings' Justin Jefferson cleared, Jordan Addison out vs. Texans
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The Paur Report
Bender's Starts/Sits: Week 3
Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride (head) finished Sunday's loss to the Lions by amassing three catches for 25 yards. He was targeted six times on the day. However, the 24-year-old had another underwhelming performance for fantasy managers. Unfortunately, McBride took a hit in the contest and is being evaluated for a concussion. Of course, this type of injury is a concern for fantasy managers, especially since it could keep him off the field for the Week 4 meeting with the Commanders. If McBride isn't available, Elijah Higgins and Tip Reiman will do their best to fill the void in the lineup.
From RotoBaller
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tim Boyle completed 7-of-13 passes for 79 yards in Sunday's 24-3 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Skylar Thompson (chest) got the start but took a hit early in the third quarter after a short completion to De'Von Achane that sent him to the sideline -- effectively ending his day. Miami couldn't get anything going with Thompson manning the helm, and that didn't change when Boyle entered the contest. The Fins were stifled by Seattle on Sunday, coming away with just three points on 12 drives. Miami had an opportunity for one more score when they were deep in Seahawks territory early in the fourth quarter, but Boyle could not convert on 4th-and-goal. There has been no update on the severity of Thompson's injury, but the team may look to sign veteran QB help if it is deemed serious. We'll know more over the coming days as Miami gears up for a Monday night home matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell took over for Gardner Minshew II in Sunday's matchup with the Panthers. Minshew didn't play the worst, throwing for 214 yards, one touchdown, and one pick off 18-for-28 passing. However, with the Panthers up big, the change was made. With that in mind, the situation is worth monitoring ahead of the Week 4 game with the Browns. But at this point, Minshew or O'Connell wouldn't draw much fantasy interest for the meeting with Cleveland.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix completed 25-of-36 passes for 217 yards, adding 47 rushing yards and a touchdown in Denver's blowout win against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Nix took a big step forward today, making smart throws and essentially taking what the Bucs gave him. This was his best game so far this season and he certainly looked very comfortable all day today. Nix still needs to string together a few solid games, but this was a major step forward. He remains a solid QB2 hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Broncos running back Javonte Williams had 12 rushing yards, four catches and 29 receiving yards in a win against Tampa Bay. Dynasty Analysis: Williams now has just 52 rushing yards through three games. While his receiving prowess is keeping some fantasy appeal alive for him, it seems the resurgence some had expected simply may not happen. Williams remains a hold (and the starter), but he belongs on fantasy benches until we see something positive from him.
Dynasty | Bucs running back Bucky Irving had 70 rushing yards, three catches, and 14 receiving yards in a loss against Denver. Dynasty Analysis: Simply put, Irving has looked better than Rachaad White through three weeks. He also out-carried him 9-6 and had 12 total touches compared to 11 for White today. Neither back is seeing the volume to be a recommended play at the moment, but Irving is starting to look like a rookie bargain at the moment.
Dynasty | Steelers quarterback Justin Fields completed 25-of-32 passes for 245 yards, with one touchdown and one interception in Pittsburgh's win against the Chargers. Dynasty Analysis: He added six rushing yards and a touchdown. Fields is now 3-0 on the season and it seems like a near certainty he remains the Steelers starter moving forward. Russell Wilson is reportedly close to a return but Pittsburgh has created some masterful game plans with Fields at the helm and that seems highly unlikely to change. Fields has some low-end QB1 appeal with his rushing ability and should be held on to tightly at the moment. As for Wilson, Fields' success is bad news.
Dynasty | Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston had two catches for 44 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Steelers. Dynasty Analysis: Johnston now has three touchdowns in two games after having just two in his rookie season last year. While much of the off-season talk revolved around Ladd McConkey, it's been Johnston who has established himself as the better fantasy scoring threat through two weeks. He remains a bit of a dangerous start at the moment, but his start is a huge step forward for a player who many felt was already a bust.
Dynasty | Chargers running back JK Dobbins had 44 rushing yards, three catches and ten receiving yards in a loss against the Steelers. Dynasty Analysis: While the scoring total for Dobbins today is disappointing, there is a big development hidden in the box score as Dobbins handled 18 touches while Gus Edwards had just three. At this point, it seems this is no longer a committee with the Chargers as Dobbins has simply taken over the backfield. This is a big development as Dobbins continues to be one of the biggest risers in terms of dynasty rankings over the first month of the season. In short, he finally looks healthy.
Dynasty | Eagles running back Saquon Barkley had 147 rushing yards, four catches, nine receiving yards, two touchdowns and a two-point conversion in a road win against the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: Barkley had been bottled up for most of the day until he ripped through the Saints defense for a Philadelphia wisely rode Barkley the rest of way and were able to pull out the win. Despite the dropped pass last week, Saquon has played at a RB1 level so far this season and remains a solid hold in dynasty leagues.
Dynasty | Dallas Goedert had ten catches for 170 yards in the Eagles win against the Saints. Dynasty Analysis: The only thing Goedert from a truly historic day was the lack of a touchdown, one he almost had a long gain in the second half before being knocked out of bounds. This will likely go down as Goedert's best fantasy day of the year, but also showed he still has TE1/2 appeal in dynasty leagues. He'll attempt to keep it going next week against Tampa Bay.
Dynasty | Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed was held without a catch in the Saints loss against the Eagles. Dynasty Analysis: It was a brutal day for Shaheed, who could have come down with two different touchdowns but failed to corral either of them. His five targets were consistent with previous weeks but today showed he still has major boom or bust potential on a week-to-week basis despite his solid start. Shaheed likely should stay on benches until we see more consistency but he's a solid player to have on rosters at the moment.
Dynasty | Texans running back Cam Akers had 21 rushing yards, adding one catch for eight yards and a touchdown in the Texans blowout loss to Minnesota. Dynasty Analysis: Akers saved his day with a score but was relatively ineffective in this one. The game script changed for Houston early as they fell behind, but this is what we've seen from Akers over the past couple of years - mediocre numbers. If Joe Mixon misses another week, he's going to be a tough player to suggest playing until we see something of substance.
Dynasty | Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs caught ten passes for 94 yards in Houston's loss against the Vikings. Dynasty Analysis: This was a big day for Diggs, who led the Texans with 12 targets. While Nico Collins still had ten, the narrative that Collins is clearly the WR1 for the team may have been a little premature. With 20 catches through three games, Diggs will be a recommended play moving forward, despite a receiving room that seems pretty stacked.
Dynasty | Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold completed 17-of-28 passes for 181 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a blowout win over Houston. Dynasty Analysis: So far, so good for Darnold and the 3-0 Vikings. At this point, Darnold has eight touchdown passes and just two interceptions on the season and clearly looks like the player the Jets thought they drafted a few years ago. While there's a long way to go this season, Darnold looks like a Comeback Player of the Year candidate and a legitimate starting quarterback in the league. The Vikings will have decisions to make in the future regarding his future (and that of JJ McCarthy), but they'll worry about that later. Darnold has QB1/2 appeal moving forward and should be on rosters everywhere.
Dynasty | Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson completed just 10-of-20 passes for 167 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions, adding 24 rushing yards in the Colts win against Chicago. Dynasty Analysis: The Colts won the game in spite of Richardson, not because of him. Richardson has been inconsistent thus far with a completion percentage around only 50% with three touchdowns and six interceptions on the season. At this point, the Colts need to see a lot more from him to really believe he's a franchise savior because early returns have been spotty. Still, it's early in the season and while Richardson is making mistakes (today's end zone interception was inexcusable), he should have time to grow.
Dynasty | Bears quarterback Caleb Williams completed 33-of-52 passes for 363 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the Bears loss to the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: This game was a total mess as nobody could imagine the Bears game script would include Williams throwing the ball more than 50 times. However, that's exactly what happened as they trailed most of the day. The numbers look good but Williams clearly has a long way to go as he also made some terrible mistakes and poor throws. You can see the potential, but Williams should remain on benches, despite being a solid dynasty hold at the moment.
Dynasty | Bears wide receiver Rome Odunze had a career-high six catches for 112 yards and a touchdown in a loss against the Colts. Dynasty Analysis: With Keenan Allen out this week, Odunze tied Cole Kmet for the team lead in targets with 11. He certainly made the most of them as he had his best day in the NFL by far. While Allen should be back soon, it's clear Odunze has the talent of a top-ten pick and has earned himself a pretty good target share moving forward. With an unpredictable rookie at the helm, this corps is going to be tough to count on moving forward, but Odunze looks like a solid dynasty hold right now.
Dynasty | Packers quarterback Malik Willis completed 13-of-19 passes for 202 yards, with one touchdown and no interceptions, while adding a team-high 73 rushing yards and a touchdown in a win against Tennessee. Dynasty Analysis: You have to wonder if the Titans brass was second guessing themselves as their former developmental quarterback was carving them up via a flawless game plan. Willis has some limitations but he has also proved he's more than capable of playing at a high level, at least in a short-term burst. Jordan Love should be back next week, but it seems clear the Packers may have found something in Willis. He should be rostered in any dynasty league that has more than 20 or so players on a roster.
Dynasty | Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers had eight catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns in a surprise win against Cleveland. Dynasty Analysis: One thing is clear this season - Nabers is here to stay. After a 10/127/1 game last week, Nabers was even better this week with his 8/78/2 line. Regardless, he has the looks not only of a future WR1, but a current one as well. While his potential may be slowed by Daniel Jones, he's proven to be more than worthy of his draft capital and his ranking is going to go up as soon as this week. In short, Nabers is a top-10 dynasty receiver already.
