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FFL: Preseason | NFL: Week 1

Lineup Prep: Championship Games

Wed Jan 24 8:44am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Related photo caption below

Gibbs can produce big this week


Last week was sure entertaining. Let’s hope the games this week are just as good. I sure think it is possible. The matchups seems pretty even to me. I know the 49ers are pretty good favorites against the Lions at home, but I think Detroit can keep it close. And the Chiefs/Ravens game is setup to be fantastic. These teams are both rolling right now. We get to see two of the greatest quarterbacks in football battle it out to make the Super Bowl. This should be fun.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . 

Those were some games last week. It was fun to watch, especially that Chiefs/Bills game. You have to feel for Josh Allen. He had a great run in the playoffs, but just can’t get over that Kansas City hump. It was there for the taking last week for Allen, but his field goal kicker let him down. I still think Allen is an elite level quarterback than can win the big game. It will come for him sooner than later. He is just running into a buzz saw with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs right now.

I don’t think Brock Purdy silenced the doubters after last week’s game. He was not great until that last game-winning drive. He still looked a little shaky to me most of that game. And the loss of Deebo Samuel could be huge for him and the offense. Samuel seems to be a calming influence for Purdy. I am interested to see him play this week. This could be make or break for him.

Aaron Jones sure is a difference maker when healthy. He was unbelievable for the Packers down the stretch, having five straight 100-yard rushing games. The issue is Jones is hard to trust because of his injury history and age. He is 29 years old and missed five games each of the last two seasons and played a full season just once the last five years. I love his talent, but have a hard time taking him on draft day - even after his huge finish to this season.

I’m happy for Baker Mayfield. He seems to have found a home after a rocky start to his career. He was terrific for the Bucs with that great group of receivers. And he almost played that team into the NFC Championship game last week, throwing three more touchdown passes. I don’t see the Bucs letting him loose and I think he could be a top-10 fantasy quarterback once again next season in Tampa. I don’t think it was a fluke this year.

I am really hoping the Texans make a run at Saquon Barkley this offseason. Could you imagine him in that offense? I think he would be a great fit and a huge spark for that running game in Houston. I think this would just be an ideal landing spot for Barkley when it comes to his fantasy value. Let’s make this happen!

The Ravens have a great team and are the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but can you imagine that offense with a healthy JK Dobbins or Keaton Mitchell all season. Both these backs are difference makers in my eyes and big upgrades over what they are using right now. I still think Dobbins can be a star in this league. Just something to keep in mind next season when these guys are back playing.

I like the Titans hire of Brian Callahan as their next head coach. He should be a positive for that offense, especially quarterback Will Levis. Hopefully, he can take this offense to a new level and give us a bunch of fantasy relevant players. Callahan is a bright, young offensive mind that has been integral in the development of Joe Burrow. Let’s hope he can do the same for Levis.

News and Notes: The Lions signed tight end Zach Ertz to their practice squad on Monday. Ertz gives the Lions depth at the position after an injury to Brock Wright.

HOT PLAYS

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. With Deebo Samuel very iffy to play, Aiyuk should be the top target at receiver for the 49ers this week. He didn’t do much last week, but was targeted six times in the game, which was encouraging. He gets a much better matchup this week against the Lions, a team that has allowed five straight 300-yard passing games. Aiyuk can have a big showing in this matchup.

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions. Gibbs had a big game last week, topping 100 total yards while scoring a touchdown. He has touchdowns each of the first two playoff games for the Lions. He has 16-plus fantasy points each of those games. Gibbs is playing well and should be heavily involved in the offense again this week. The 49ers have been great against the run much of the year, but shown some issues stopping the run lately. San Francisco allowed 136-rushing yards last week and given up 100-plus rushing yards four of five games.

COLD PLAYS 

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff had a great overall season, but his fantasy numbers haven’t been too off the charts. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points three of five games. He is getting his yards, but the Lions tend to run the ball in more for scores than pass. He might be an iffy fantasy play this week against the 49ers. San Francisco allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points to quarterback during the regular season.

Gus Edwards, RB, Ravens. Edwards has failed to score each of his last two games, giving him really poor fantasy numbers. He has fewer than six fantasy points each of his last two games, failing to hit 50-rushing yards each of those games. Edwards could have a similar showing this week against the Chiefs, a team that allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to running backs. Kansas City allowed just 10-rushing touchdowns all season.

SLEEPERS

Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens. Bateman had three receptions for 39 yards on three targets last week. He had a solid game but failed to hit double-digit fantasy points once again. The good news is he got his looks once again. The Chiefs have a very good pass defense, but Bateman could have more favorable coverages than Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham. Those guys should draw the tougher assignments, leaving Bateman a chance to make some big plays in the passing game. He could surprise this week.

Justice Hill, RB, Ravens. Hill led the Ravens in rushing last week, including rushing attempts. He got more work than starter Gus Edwards. Hill had 15 touches for 77 total yards. He could be setup for a similar workload in what could be a high-scoring fantasy teams. This means Hill could have a big fantasy showing. At this point, we might trust Hill more than Edwards, who is a more touchdown dependent player.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Chiefs/Ravens, Lions/49ers.

Low Scoring Games: None.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

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The Paur Report
Player Notes
Evan Engram Jun 3 4:00pm CT
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Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Evan Engram has quietly been one of the best at his position in fantasy football over the last two seasons, and team reporter John Shipley said he has looked "fantastic" this summer at OTAs. The former first-round pick by the New York Giants in 2017 has found a great home with Jacksonville and catching passes from Trevor Lawrence. Over the last two years, he's hauled in 187 passes for 1,729 yards and eight touchdowns. He trails only Travis Kelce in receptions among tight ends since 2022, and his 114 receptions in 2023 rank second-most in a single season for tight ends all-time. After the departure of Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, Engram should continue to be heavily targeted in 2024. Despite finishing as the TE2 (PPR) last season, he has an average draft position around the TE7 spot. He could provide immense value at cost.

From RotoBaller

Tony Jefferson Jun 3 3:40pm CT
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Veteran free-agent safety Tony Jefferson will try out for the Los Angeles Chargers roster during the team's upcoming minicamp, according to NFL insider Jordan Schultz. After nine NFL seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, and New York Giants, Jefferson announced his retirement in May of 2023. He announced plans to attempt a comeback in May of 2024, and he'll look to crack L.A.'s roster this offseason. Although Jefferson has never made a Pro Bowl or been named to an All-Pro team, he's been a solid and productive player, racking up 491 tackles, 9.5 sacks, eight forced fumbles, four interceptions, and 24 pass deflections in 113 career games. If he makes the offseason roster, he'll still have an uphill battle to make the 53-man roster. If he does that, he'll likely be utilized as a depth safety and veteran leader for a rebuilding organization.

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Elijah Moore Jun 3 3:30pm CT
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Cleveland Browns wide receiver Elijah Moore played 366 slot snaps (18th-most) in his first season with the organization, but head coach Kevin Stefanski said he is lining up in different spots this offseason. After flashing upside and posting 538 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games as a rookie with the New York Jets, Moore has struggled to enter the fantasy radar over the next two seasons. In his last 33 games with New York and Cleveland, he's hauled in 96 passes for 1,086 yards and just three touchdowns. Amari Cooper should remain the clear No. 1 option in Cleveland's passing attack, and the team added Jerry Jeudy via trade with the Denver Broncos before free agency began. Second-year wideout Cedric Tillman and rookie wideout Jamari Thrash could also compete for snaps, so Moore becoming a more versatile pass-catcher will help his chances of staying on the field. While it's tough to completely give up on Moore in dynasty formats, it would be surprising if he becomes a weekly fantasy contributor in 2024.

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Marvin Harrison Jr. Jun 3 3:20pm CT
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Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He's also the son of a Hall of Fame receiver who dominated while catching passes from Peyton Manning in the early 2000s. However, his last name and draft status have not made him complacent, according to head coach Jonathan Gannon. "He's extremely detailed. He does a lot of extra, probably too much," Gannon said. "I love extra work but you gotta be smart...you can't go seven days in a row." While Gannon is correct, Harrison Jr.'s work ethic is a great sign this early in his career. The 2023 Biletnikoff Award winner is expected to be a true No. 1 wide receiver from the jump, and fantasy managers are expecting a WR1 campaign in fantasy football as a rookie. Outside of tight end Trey McBride, his competition for targets is on the weaker side, so he should earn a respectable target share and provide spike weeks in 2024.

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Doug Pederson Jun 3 3:10pm CT
Doug Pederson

Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver David White Jr. (knee) suffered a torn ACL last week, according to head coach Doug Pederson. It's a tough blow for an undrafted rookie trying to make an impact. White spent the last two years at Western Carolina University and caught 54 passes for 903 yards and 11 touchdowns. He was already a longshot to make the 53-man roster, and now he's even more unlikely to play a snap in 2024.

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Anthony Richardson Jun 3 2:00pm CT
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On the Pat McAfee Show on Monday, Indianapolis Colts second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder) said he's almost fully recovered from season-ending surgery on his right shoulder last year. "I'm at about 95% right now and it took me about four months to start throwing again," Richardson said. It took Richardson around four months before he could resume throwing and he's been taking part in organized team activities this offseason as he heads into his second year in the NFL. The 22-year-old former first-rounder isn't planning on changing the way he plays to avoid injuries as a runner and he says he's a lot more comfortable in head coach Shane Steichen's offense. Richardson has more injury risk than most QBs because of his propensity to take off and run with the football, but he also has high-end QB1 upside despite playing in only four games in 2023 before getting hurt.

From RotoBaller

Trevor Lawrence Jun 3 1:40pm CT
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Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence said he would love to have a contract extension in place before training camp begins at the end of July, but it's not going to be an issue for him if he doesn't get it. Lawrence's representatives and the Jaguars have been working on an extension for months, and the deal is expected to make him one of the highest-paid QBs in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. He's entering the final season of a fully-guaranteed, four-year deal worth $36,793,592 that he signed after being taken first overall in the 2021 draft. Lawrence's fifth-year option was picked up, which fully guarantees him $25.664 million in 2025. The 24-year-old said he's more concerned with continuing to develop in his third season in head coach Doug Pederson's offense than with his extension. With better health in 2024, Lawrence could easily take another step forward.

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Jelani Woods Jun 3 1:30pm CT
Jelani Woods

Indianapolis Colts former third-round tight end Jelani Woods is entering a pivotal season early in his career, and his blend of size, speed and open-field ability could give the Colts offense the kind of downfield weapon that is tough to find at the position. Injuries have limited Woods early in his career. He played in 15 games (two starts) in his rookie year in 2022 and had 25 catches for 312 yards and three touchdowns, but he didn't play at all in 2023 due to injuries to both of his hamstrings. The 25-year-old changed his training regimen to specifically strengthen his legs this offseason and feels much better. Head coach Shane Steichen said Woods has "been making a ton of plays" at OTAs this offseason. The Colts have a crowded TE room with Woods, Kylen Granson, Mo Alie-Cox, Drew Ogletree and Will Mallory, but if he stays healthy, Woods has the upside to be the Colts' top pass-catching TE.

From RotoBaller

Bijan Robinson Jun 3 1:20pm CT
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Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (ankle) is taking part in organized team activities on Monday. It's great to see that Robinson is already recovered from a minor ankle injury that he suffered during OTAs in May. After being taken with the eighth overall pick in the first round in last year's draft out of Texas, Robinson carried the ball 214 times for 976 yards (4.6 yards per carry) and four touchdowns, adding 58 receptions on 86 targets for 487 yards and four touchdowns through the air in 17 games in his first year in the league. Tyler Allgeier remains in Atlanta's backfield, but the 22-year-old Robinson is the clear lead back and should be able to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards in his sophomore campaign if he stays healthy in 2024, especially with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins taking over an offense that should look to prioritize getting the ball in the hands of its best playmakers more often.

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CeeDee Lamb Jun 3 1:10pm CT
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According to sources, contract talks between the Dallas Cowboys and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb are expected to "speed up" beyond its previous pace since "there's at least a number" with the announcement of Minnesota Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson's record-setting, non-quarterback contract extension on Monday. Jefferson inked a four-year, $140 million extension with the Vikes. Lamb hasn't been in attendance at any of the team's voluntary organized team activities this offseason as he seeks a new contract, which he should get before the start of the 2024 regular season. The 25-year-old led the NFL with 135 receptions last year and went for 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns, making him an elite, high-end WR1 target for fantasy managers this fall.

From RotoBaller

Gabriel Davis Jun 3 1:10pm CT
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Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson said that wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) should be cleared for training camp this summer. The same can be said for defensive lineman Arik Armstead (knee), who is also recovering from a knee injury this offseason. Davis signed a three-year, $39 million deal with the Jaguars in March after spending the first four years of his career with the Buffalo Bills. The 25-year-old deep threat had at least six touchdowns in all four of his seasons in the league, but he's been extremely inconsistent and finished 2023 with 45 catches for 746 yards in 17 regular-season games. Davis will be locked in as a starter in a very capable Jacksonville offense, but he'll be competing for targets with Christian Kirk, first-rounder Brian Thomas and tight end Evan Engram and will likely continue to be a boom-or-bust fantasy asset at wide receiver.

From RotoBaller

Justin Jefferson Jun 3 9:20am CT
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All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson has agreed to a four-year, $140 million contract extension to remain with the Minnesota Vikings, according to NFL insider Tom Pelissero. The deal makes him the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL and includes $110 million in guaranteed money. The No. 22 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft is arguably one of the best players in the league, regardless of position, and he has posted 392 receptions for 5,899 yards and 30 touchdowns through his first 60 games. At just 24 years old, he has been named to three Pro Bowls and three All-Pro squads. He also won the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award after posting 1,809 receiving yards. Jefferson is well on pace to become a future Hall of Famer, so hopefully, he can stay healthy after missing seven games last year. Although he's set to play with Sam Darnold and rookie J.J. McCarthy at quarterback in 2024, he should remain at least a mid-range WR1 in fantasy football.

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Darren Waller Jun 3 9:10am CT
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New York Giants tight end Darren Waller is expected to make a decision on his 2024 playing status by next week's mini-camp, and people in and around the organization expect he will announce his retirement, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN. Waller has had a tough time staying healthy lately, as he's missed 19 games over the last three years with lingering lower-body injuries. The 31-year-old posted consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders in 2019 and 2020, but he hasn't reached 700 yards since. If Waller decides to call it a career, target competition for No. 6 overall pick Malik Nabers will be even further reduced. Meanwhile, Daniel Bellinger and rookie Theo Johnson will likely compete for TE1 duties. Either player will have limited upside in Daniel Jones' offense. Whether Waller continues to play or not, his career exceeded expectations considering he was a converted wide receiver and had fewer than 200 receiving yards to his name in the three years before his 2019 breakout season.

From RotoBaller

Aaron Rodgers Jun 2 10:23pm CT
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New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown at least 25 touchdowns in each of the 13 seasons that he has played at least 10 games, but only four quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown 25 or more touchdowns in a season after failing to complete a pass in the previous season.

Fantasy Spin: After his first season with the Jets ended almost as soon as it began, Rodgers will return to an improved offensive line and supporting cast. At his age, a return to MVP form seems unlikely, but Rodgers should still be a high-end QB2.

From TheHuddle

Sam Howell Jun 2 7:30pm CT
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Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Howell is expected to begin the season behind Geno Smith. However, it appears the former Commander isn't a lock to be the No. 2 signal-caller on the depth chart. "Not much," he said when responding to a question about what he knows about his role heading into the 2023-24 campaign. "They just tell me to keep working and just keep trying to get better every single day, and I'm taking it one day at a time, and I really don't worry too much about the future or what plans they might have for me just because nobody really knows." Howell finished last season by throwing for 3,946 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. He also completed 63.4% of his throws and added five rushing touchdowns. As such, the 23-year-old could get a chance under center in Seattle if Smith struggles at any point during the season, assuming he doesn't win the starting job during training camp. As a result, dynasty managers playing in multi-quarterback setups and have room to spare should keep Howell on the roster, at least for now.

From RotoBaller

Brandon McManus Jun 2 7:10pm CT
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The Washington Commanders released kicker Brandon McManus on Sunday night. The veteran was recently accused of sexual assault in a lawsuit stemming from several alleged incidents that occurred during an overseas flight last season while he was with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Since then, McManus signed a one-year deal with the Commanders in March. However, he'll now be looking for work, although teams will unlikely consider signing him anytime soon.

From RotoBaller

Brandon McManus Jun 2 6:53pm CT
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Washington Commanders PK Brandon McManus was released on Sunday, June 2. The move comes in the wake of sexual assault allegations against the kicker.

From TheHuddle

James Conner Jun 2 12:30pm CT
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Arizona Cardinals veteran running back and team captain James Conner is heading into his eighth NFL season in 2024 and his fourth with the Cardinals. He's coming off his first 1,000-yard season as a professional and said he wouldn't mind finishing his NFL career in the desert. Conner has grown close to quarterback Kyler Murray, spending time together on numerous outings. The 29-year-old veteran is entering the last year of the three-year deal he signed in 2022, which has ended up being a bargain for the Cardinals. "It would be awesome to finish my career here, but nothing changes," Conner said. Rookie third-rounder Trey Benson could eventually take over Conner's spot as the team's lead back, but as far as 2024 in concerned, Conner should remain the team's lead back in what should be an improved offense.

From RotoBaller

Deuce Vaughn Jun 2 12:30pm CT
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As expected, the Dallas Cowboys have been experimenting with using pint-sized running back Deuce Vaughn as a receiver out of the slot during organized team activities this offseason. The second-year back was seen on Thursday at OTAs taking reps out of the slot as head coach Mike McCarthy looks to add some wrinkles to his offense going into Year 2 as the play-caller. Vaughn has also been taking backup returner reps to KaVontae Turpin. The 5-foot-6 running back saw limited action last year in his rookie campaign, getting just 30 touches for 80 scrimmage yards. But with Tony Pollard gone, Vaughn should see an increase in snaps in Year 2 in 2024. However, he's still currently third on the RB depth chart in Dallas behind Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle, so he's not going to be on the fantasy radar on draft day in standard 12-team leagues.

From RotoBaller

John Ross Jun 2 12:20pm CT
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Former first-round wide receiver John Ross recently signed with the Philadelphia Eagles as he looks to revive his NFL career. Ross spent time with the Kansas City Chiefs last July before retiring. Before that, he set a then-NFL record with a 4.22-second 40-yard dash at the combine and was taken ninth overall by the Cincinnati Bengals. He started just one game for Cincy in his rookie season and just 20 total, recording 51 catches for 733 yards and 10 touchdowns in four years. Ross last played in the NFL in 2021 with the Giants, catching 11 passes for 224 yards and one TD. "I haven't lost a step," Ross said. "I'm still the same guy. I feel like I'm better than what I was." The 28-year-old burner is intriguing in Philly's offense, but he'll most likely see most of his playing time on special teams as a kick returner.

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