Lineup Prep: Super Bowl
Wed Feb 7 8:43am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Pacheco is playing at high level
Not sure about you, but there is not a better weekend in sports than Super Bowl weekend. It is as good as it gets. Just everything involved with it is so much fun. I am so looking forward to it all this weekend. Let’s hope it is a good game and lives up to the hype. Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .
I will give you my pick for the game right off the bat. I think it will be a close game, but look for the Chiefs to squeak it out. I think the experience factor plays a difference here in the end, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. Patrick Mahomes has been outstanding during the playoffs and think he has a huge advantage over Brock Purdy. Plus, the Chiefs defense has been outstanding lately, completely shutting down the opponent. I don’t see them shutting down the 49ers high-powered offense, but think they will cause Purdy problems. I’m going with a Chiefs 31-27 victory.
If you still don’t have any fantasy teams alive in the playoffs, consider playing our fun pickem contests. We have tons of options available to play with for the Super Bowl. I wanted to give you a few of my favorite pickem plays for the big game. Give me Travis Kelce more than 70.5-receiving yards. Kelce has 71-plus yards all three of his playoff games and is coming off arguably his best game of the season. And the 49ers struggled to stop the tight end last week, seeing Sam LaPorta rack up the receptions and yards. I also like Brandon Aiyuk less than 61.5-receiving yards. Aiyuk has failed to hit that mark two of three games and has just three catches each of his last three games. Lastly, I like Deebo Samuel more than 79.5-rushing and receiving yards. Samuel had 11 touches his last game and was a huge part of the offense. I look for the 49ers to get him involved early and often, giving him good potential to rack up some total yards.
I’m not sure how I feel about the Commanders hiring of Kliff Kingsbury. His offenses were fine in Arizona, but not as explosive as many thought and he struggled some using Caleb Williams last year at USC. I think the Commanders would have been better served keeping Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator. I thought he did a great job with the offense last year in Washington all things considered. I’m not convinced Kingsbury is going to be an upgrade.
On a different subject, can we stop teasing and showing parts of the Super Bowl commercials before the game? I mean part of the fun of the game is the commercials. They are always entertaining and a part of the event. But now, you see parts of the commercials before the game, ruining the surprise. C’mon people. Let’s stop this tradition right now.
We had our first TFC draft of the 2024 season last night. And in a surprise move, the first pick of the draft was Breece Hall. And we also saw Sam LaPorta get picked before Travis Kelce. It is always interesting to see how these early drafts shake out. A lot is going to change between now and the start of next season, but trends are starting now. In this draft, four running backs were picked in the first round compared to eight receivers. And the quarterback position looks as deep as ever with guys like Jordan Love getting picked in Round 11. Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins also went very late.
News and Notes: The Chargers hired Greg Roman as their new offensive coordinator. Roman tends to be more run heavy when it comes to play calling. . . . .Former Texans and Patriots running back Rex Burkhead announced his retirement from the NFL on Tuesday.
HOT PLAYS
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs. Pacheco has taken his game to new heights during the Chiefs playoff run. He has at least 15 fantasy points four straight games and found the end zone seven consecutive games. He even has 20-plus carries two of three games, getting a big workload in the Chiefs offense. Expect more of the same this week from Pacheco. The 49ers allowed 182-rushing yards to the Lions their last game and allowed 135-plus rushing yards each of their two playoff games.
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs. Kelce has looked like a different player during these playoffs than the regular season. He had 11 receptions his last game and at least five catches all three playoff games. He has 14-plus fantasy points all three games. He has really elevated his game after a ho-hum second half of the season. Look for him to be the focal point of the Chiefs passing game once again this week. And San Francisco couldn’t contain Sam LaPorta in the Championship game, allowing him to get nine receptions for 97 yards. The Packers tight ends had six receptions and a touchdown in the 49ers other playoff game.
COLD PLAYS
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk did score a touchdown his last game, which was a big positive, but he had just three receptions. He has just three cathodes three straight games. He has were than 40 yards two of three. And with the Chiefs secondary clamping down on receivers right not, it could be more of the same for Aiyuk this week. He could be held in check once again.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs. McKinnon is expected to make his long-awaited return this week, returning from a groin injury. He has not played since Week 15. Just remember he has not reached double-digit touches in a single game this year. Pacheco is the lead back in this offense and will get most of the work at running back. McKinnon played great during the Chiefs playoff run last season, but this is a new year. Plus, McKinnon has not played in several weeks, so you have to wonder how much he is even on the field. He will be a big risk to use for fantasy owners.
SLEEPERS
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers. There are always surprise players in the Super Bowl, so why not Jennings. He could draw the most favorable matchups in coverage for the 49ers receiver options. And he has looked good in the playoffs, having six receptions for 69 yards in two games. He played 42 percent of the snaps last week - even with Deebo Samuel back in the lineup. Jennings might get a big play or two in this one, making him an intriguing fantasy play.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Chiefs. Valdes-Scantling had the game-clinching reception in the Championship game, making a sliding catch on third down to clinch the game. He finished with two receptions for 38 yards. But he played a season-high 83 percent of the snaps in that game, which is encouraging. If he is on the field that much again this week, his reception and yardage totals could rise in what might be a high-scoring game.
High/Low Scoring Games
Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.
High Scoring Games: Chiefs/49ers.
Low Scoring Games: None.
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
- Patriots, RB Rhamondre Stevenson agree to 4-year extension
- Browns DE Lonnie Phelps waived after crashing car into restaurant
- Broncos add ex-Stanford coach David Shaw to front office
- Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence signs $275M contract
- Saints signing free agent S Roderic Teamer
- Jaguars signing veteran WR Denzel Mims
- Pats sign former CFL, XFL and UFL G Liam Fornadel
- Cowboys sign DB Gareon Conley, LB Willie Harvey
- Steelers to release WR Denzel Mims
- Lions sign UFL K Jake Bates
- Brandon Aiyuk: 49ers 'don't want me back'
- Browns GM: Deshaun Watson ahead of schedule in rehab
- Bengals re-sign WR Tee Higgins to 1-year franchise tag
- 'Hard Knocks' to feature all AFC North teams in season
- Chiefs DL Isaiah Buggs arrested in Alabama
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins to sign $21.8M franchise tag
- Lions to sign UFL kicker Jake Bates
- Commanders sign No. 2 pick QB Jayden Daniels
- Chargers bring S Tony Jefferson out of retirement
- Chiefs' new Super Bowl rings feature factual error
- Fantasy Six Pack: is Saquon Barkley’s Value? | 2024 Philadelphia Eagles Draft Guide
- Fantasy Six Pack: Nico Collins, Tank Dell or Stefon Diggs provide the best draft value? | 2024 Houston Texans Fantasy Football Draft Guide
- Fantasy Six Pack: IDP NFC North Draft Guide
The Paur Report
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Greg Dortch is expected to have an expanded role in 2024, according to Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic. Dortch has been a steady, reliable contributor to Arizona's wide receiver corps over his two seasons with the team. Now, even though Marvin Harrison Jr. will be the focal point of the offense, Dortch is expected to get plenty of looks. He'll operate ahead of Zay Jones and Chris Moore, instead mixing in with the likes of Harrison, Michael Wilson, and Trey McBride. The now-26-year-old had 23 catches for 278 yards over his final seven games last season, and he figures to rank as a high-end WR5 heading into fantasy football drafts this year.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Malachi Corley is still adjusting to NFL speed and the team's offense, according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic. Specifically, Rosenblatt cautions against automatically viewing Corley as the Jets' No. 3 receiver over Xavier Gipson, who has made several players while taking a significant leap this offseason. As of now, it appears Gipson and Corley are the two candidates vying for the No. 3 receiver role, and it's possible that the former actually has a slight advantage. Of course, Rosenblatt also notes that Corley drew plenty of hype following the draft and "has a lot of talent and made some plays," even if his position on the depth chart is still in flux.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets wide receiver Xavier Gipson "made plays throughout OTAs and minicamp and seems to have taken a leap forward after a year of NFL experience," according to Zack Rosenblatt of The Athletic. Rosenblatt even suggested that Gipson might have a leg up on the No. 3 receiver role over Malachi Corley, the fast-rising rookie who has turned some heads during camp but is still adjusting to NFL speed. If Gipson does open 2024 ahead of Corley on the depth chart, he'll still fall behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams in the pecking order. As a result, the second-year receiver is merely a bench option in deeper redraft leagues.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. has been impressive throughout OTAs and mandatory minicamp. As expected, Harrison has emerged as the top option in the wide receiver room. This comes as no shock given his talent and the fact the Cardinals selected him as the 4th overall pick in this year's draft. The rookie wideout has reportedly had no issues with picking up the Cardinals playbook. The expectation is that he'll be the unquestioned top target for quarterback Kyler Murray. The hype is real as Harrison has risen to the early second round in many 2024 fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker put together a fairly quiet rookie campaign, but could see a bigger role next season. Tucker is a bit undersized but Raiders' head coach Antonio Pierce doesn't care about his size and says everyone should watch Tucker play. Tucker finished with 19 receptions for 331 receiving yards and two touchdowns during his rookie season. It seems possible that the Raiders use Tucker in a dual-threat type of role because they like his athleticism. On paper, Tucker is a distant No. 3 option behind Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers on the depth chart.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants wide receiver Jalin Hyatt has reportedly put on weight this offseason. The second-year wideout is listed as 185 pounds heading into camp. Hyatt didn't provide the exact number, but he has added some bulk this offseason. The young wideout mentioned that he needed to get bigger in order to play more on the outside as a wide receiver. It'll be interesting to see how Hyatt is worked into the gameplan after a fairly quiet rookie campaign. The wide receiver room is only getting more crowded with Malik Nabers joining the team as their first-round draft pick. Hyatt could be a late-round flier on draft boards this fall.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Doug Haller writes that there is a lot of optimism from the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, with the biggest reason being that quarterback Kyler Murray is on the field. Murray was off to the side working with the team's conditioning staff at this time last year while trying to recover from ACL surgery. Murray's recovery affected Arizona's entire season in 2023 after he missed the first nine games. He spent the rest of the year learning a new offense and trying to find his way back, and it showed. An offseason built around Murray should make a difference in 2024. The 26-year-old put in extra work with his receivers on weekends, trying to perfect rhythm and timing. Murray probably isn't going to be an elite passer, especially given the lack of standout options at receiver in Arizona besides rookie first-rounder Marvin Harrison Jr., but his elite rushing ability and upside should give him a solid fantasy floor as a top-10 quarterback heading into upcoming fantasy drafts.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The Patriots have signed running back Rhamondre Stevenson to a contract extension. Dynasty Analysis: New England is giving Stevenson $17 million in guaranteed money, which also includes an $8 million signing bonus and $12 million more possible with incentives. In other words, he's the starter moving forward. This is a hefty sum of money to give a running back, especially one who struggled at times last year. Regardless, this contract makes him the seventh highest paid running back in football and cements him in as a RB2 for the foreseeable future.
Dynasty | Numerous reports are indicating Russell Wilson is the clear starter in Pittsburgh. Dynasty Analysis: There were some silly rumors about Justin Fields returning kicks earlier this off-season but those proved false. However, it certainly does seem Wilson is taking charge at quarterback and has a clear lead over Fields at this point in the process. After spending most of the post-Roethlisberger era spinning their wheels, it seems Pittsburgh has two capable players to lead the team and the veteran Wilson looks poised to have the first crack at it. While no longer a viable QB1 in dynasty leagues, Wilson could provide QB2 value this season.
Dynasty | The Jaguars have signed free agent wide receiver Denzel Mims. Dynasty Analysis: The former second round pick has been a bust thus far in his career but the Jags seem willing to give him one more shot. With just 42 career catches for 672 scoreless yards over four years, it's hard to get too excited about his prospects. Still, we know Mims has some talent and he's at least worthy of having on a watch list should he find his way on to the roster later this Summer.
Dynasty | Former Steelers wide receiver James Washington is attempting a comeback. Dynasty Analysis: Washington moved on from Pittsburgh and found little success in his time in Dallas. He also failed to impress in stops with the Giants, Saints, and Colts, failing to make their final rosters. It's a longshot to think he's going to emerge as a viable player in dynasty leagues but this is at least a fun story to watch during a summer of slow news.
The Denver Broncos announced the hiring of former Stanford head coach David Shaw as a senior personnel executive on Thursday. Shaw interviewed for a few NFL head coaching gigs this offseason but now lands in Denver in a front-office role. The 51-year-old coached in the NFL from 1997 to 2005 before joining the college ranks. After taking over for Jim Harbaugh at Stanford in 2011, he compiled a 96-54 record and won five bowl games in 12 seasons.
From RotoBaller
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected former Oregon running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, just months after Rachaad White finished his breakout campaign that consisted of 1,539 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns on 336 touches. White was a rare workhorse in today's NFL, so Irving is likely to get work behind him in 2024. When speaking about Irving, White said the two could be a great one-two punch. "Bucky does a great job of, first thing, competing, and two, learning," White said. "They're all brilliant and they all want to understand the game more, and things like that. We talk a lot. We've got a good relationship. It's huge. I think he brings a playmaker [ability] and in this offense, the more playmakers, the better. It'll be huge. The one-two punch would be nice." It will be interesting to see how offensive coordinator Liam Cohen distributes the backfield touches, but White should remain the clear starter in Tampa Bay. Irving is a Day 3 rookie who had a disappointing pre-draft process, so expectations should be tempered.
From RotoBaller
New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson agreed to a four-year, $36 million contract extension on Thursday, according to NFL insider Ian Rapoport. The deal includes $17 million guaranteed. While the team can get out of the deal early and less than half of it is guaranteed, this is still a sign that the organization views him as the clear leadback. The 26-year-old enjoyed a breakout campaign in 2022, racking up over 1,400 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in 17 games. He was limited to just 12 games and 857 yards in 2023, but he should be healthy heading into his fourth pro season. While Antonio Gibson might get work behind him in the receiving game, both running backs could see plenty of targets given the weak group of pass-catchers Drake Maye and Jacoby Brissett have to work with. Stevenson is likely an underpriced RB2 for 2024.
From RotoBaller
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan was selected in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and according to Bailey Adams of PewterReport, he's on track to be a Day 1 contributor. "McMillan may even have a chance to overtake [Trey] Palmer for the WR3 role, though Palmer is having a good offseason himself," Adams wrote. "In either case, the rookie looks like he'll help the Bucs from day one, whether he's WR3 or WR4." Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have the WR1 and WR2 roles locked down, so it will be interesting to see whether Palmer or McMillan sees more snaps early in the 2024 campaign. While sharing a field with Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk in 2022, McMillan posted 79 receptions for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns. He regressed in his final season at Washington, but he was still productive considering the immense target competition. The 22-year-old likely has limited fantasy upside as a rookie if Evans and Godwin stay healthy, but if he flashes with limited targets, his fantasy stock could spike in dynasty and for the following season.
From RotoBaller
The New Orleans Saints signed free-agent safety Roderic Teamer to an undisclosed one-year deal on Thursday, according to a source with knowledge of the situation. The 27-year-old Tulane product previously tried out with the Saints at rookie minicamp and again at mandatory minicamp and will join his hometown team. Teamer began his NFL career in 2019 with the Los Angeles Chargers after going undrafted. He then spent the next three years playing for the Las Vegas Raiders. In his 40 NFL games (11 starts) over four years, Teamer has 103 tackles (72 solo), an interception, one sack and three pass breakups. He will now look to impress the coaching staff enough in training camp and the preseason to earn a 53-man roster spot as secondary depth going into Week 1 this fall.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Zac Jackson believes that the Cleveland Browns plan to open the year with new wide receiver Jerry Jeudy in the slot and Amari Cooper and Cedric Tillman out wide. Jeudy also has the ability to play outside, and Elijah Moore will also see snaps both inside and outside. David Bell is likely the No. 5 receiver, and any other player wanting to get into the immediate mix at the position would need a big summer performance and come with special teams ability. Jeudy was held out of spring practices with a minor injury, so he should be ready to go for training camp this summer. The former first-rounder from Alabama has lined up slightly more than half the time so far in his NFL career, but he's been a disappointment to this point and won't have a ton of fantasy upside as long as Cooper stays healthy in 2024. Jeudy should be considered more of a WR4/5 heading into his first year in Cleveland.
From RotoBaller
Former New York Jets wide receiver Denzel Mims, who was released by the Pittsburgh Steelers this week, quickly found a home and signed an undisclosed deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday, according to sources. Mims spent time on the Steelers' practice squad last year but never played in a regular-season game. The 26-year-old former second-round selection (59th overall) by the Jets in 2020 out of Baylor was a bust in his three years in New York, catching 42 of 92 targets for 676 yards and no touchdowns in 30 games (15 starts). He was traded to the Detroit Lions at the start of the 2023 campaign but also didn't get into any regular-season games with the team. Even with Calvin Ridley gone in Jacksonville, Mims is going to be fighting an uphill battle to make the Jags' 53-man roster out of training camp this summer.
From RotoBaller
The Athletic's Zac Jackson projects Cleveland Browns running back Pierre Strong Jr. to make the team with both Nick Chubb and Nyheim Hines coming off knee injuries. Strong might be the fifth running back on the team, though, and he might not play RB at all. He showcased his impressive straight-line speed in May and June during offseason workouts and most of his work will likely come on special teams as a punt gunner and kickoff returner. For that, he'll likely be on the game-day roster, despite a RB room that includes Chubb, Hines, Jerome Ford and D'Onta Foreman. Strong and backup cornerback Justin Hardee Sr. are near the top of the list of players in line to make the roster for special teams purposes. Just don't count on Strong being anywhere near the fantasy radar in 2024.
From RotoBaller
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle was rehabbing a fractured rib, issues with his shoulder and toe, and a core-muscle injury that required surgery this offseason. As a result, Kittle revealed that he lost almost 30 pounds after the Super Bowl loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, a significant blow to his typical 250-pound frame. "I couldn't lift," Kittle explained. "I couldn't do any upper body because of my shoulder and my rib, and I couldn't do lower [body] because of my core surgery. I didn't lift from the Super Bowl until like almost mid-March." However, Kittle remains confident going into the 2024 season and is recovered from surgery on his core. The 30-year-old led the NFL with 1,020 receiving yards in 16 regular-season games in 2023 and is still one of the high-end targets at the position in fantasy. However, with only 65 catches in an offense with many mouths to feed, his 2023 production may be his ceiling at this point in his career.
From RotoBaller
