Lineup Prep: Week 12

Wed Nov 22 12:17pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

White is playing his best football

This is always my favorite Lineup Prep column of the season to write. I do the same thing every year, talking about things I’m thankful for from a fantasy perspective. It is the Thanksgiving edition of Lineup Prep. So without further ado. . . .

First off, I want to wish everyone a very Happy Thanksgiving. I don’t know about you, but hits is my favorite holiday of the year. You get football. You get great food. And you get to do it with family and friends. I just feel like Thanksgiving isn’t quite a stressful as some of the other holiday. I really look forward to it every year. Here is to hoping you hav a great Thanksgiving this year.

I am thankful for the great fantasy football community. While I was doing my weekly hit on the Colton and the Wolfman show last night, Rick Wolf made a great point about our fantasy football community. It is an inclusive community that does it’s best to help everyone in it. This isn’t the case for a lot of industries, so we are really fortunate to be just a small part of it. I love seeing people pulling for each other and helping everyone in it. It is just a welcome sight these days when our world seems more divided as ever.

I am thankful that the tight end position is finally adding some impactful young talent. It seems like we think that is going to happen every season, but it doesn’t. Well, this year it is happening. There are a lot of good, young tight ends ready to make an impact for years to come. Maybe this position finally won’t be as top heavy going forward. Thank you to Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta for helping ushering in that change.

I am thankful to share the love of fantasy sports with my son, Henry. I'm so fortunate to have someone in my same household that loves fantasy sports as much as I do. It is so cool for me to do videos with him, talking about fantasy strategy. Henry gets better feedback than I do for those videos. He does such a great job and it brings me joy to see so many people enjoy seeing him on there. I’m lucky to get to experience that.

I am thankful for leagues winners. Normally, it isn’t the high draft picks that win leagues for owners, but the guys in the middle rounds that outproduce. It is such a great feeling to draft those players, seeing your offseason preparation pay off to help you win your leagues. Players that fit that bill this year are Raheem Mostert, Brian Robinson, Adam Thielen and Puka Nacua. Here is to hoping you got some of these players on your teams this year.

I am thankful for the ever changing landscape of fantasy football. It is great to see the industry getting innovative, coming up with new games and formats that keep things interesting. Don’t get me wrong, the leagues you have been in forever are usually the best, but it is fun to try new formats and games. The super flex leagues are a great example of this, becoming more and more popular. It is fun to try new things - even when it comes to fantasy.

I am thankful for C.J. Stroud. This guy is going to be a star for years to come. I’m not sure anyone saw this coming for him his rookie season. He is making a run at the MVP award, playing as well as almost any quarterback in the game. Stroud is just so fun to watch. I can’t wait to see what his future holds. He is a special player.

I am thankful for the red zone channel. This channel is just amazing and makes watching football a totally different experience. And this is all because of fantasy football. Fantasy football is the reason this channel exists. Everyone wants to know who is scoring for their teams, so seeing all the scores of all the games was the next logical step. Is there any better way to watch the games? I don’t think so.

And along the same lines of the red zone channel, I am thankful for Twitter (or whatever it is called these days). This is another media that has really changed the landscape of fantasy sports. We get so many updates so quickly now. It is used to be us scouring the newspapers to read the practice reports. Now we get the practice reports in about real time. There is no reason to miss out on injury updates or position updates with all the news at our disposal these days. We have come a long way in those regards.

Lastly, I am thankful to work for the best fantasy sports site in the business, RealTime Fantasy Sports. This community at RTSports is amazing. I interact with users of our site every day. It is so fun getting to know the passionate users of our site. I also enjoy interviewing them, especially for our videos. These guys know their stuff and can be a great benefit for our users. We are fortunate to have so many great players here at RTSports. Thank you for making our site so special.

News and Notes: The Steelers fired offensive coordinator Matt Canada on Tuesday. The move was imminent with the Steelers offense struggling much of the year. . . . .The Colts released former All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard on Tuesday. Leonard should find work in a hurry with his track record. . . . .The Rams waived running back Darrell Henderson on Tuesday. With Kyren Williams due back this week, Henderson was expendable.

HOT PLAYS

Rachaad White, RB, Bucs. If you can believe this, White is fourth overall in fantasy running back scoring and third his last three games. He has 17-plus fantasy points four straight games. He is getting a ton of work in the passing game, giving him a great weekly floor. White has at least six receptions three of five games. He has become a must start for fantasy teams. He can have another big game this week against the Colts, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers. Aiyuk has 100-yard games two of his last three. He is sixth overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. Aiyuk has four 100-yard games for the season. He has taken his game to another level this year, showing he is an elite NFL receiver. Expect more of the same this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the 14th most fantasy points to receivers and are 21st overall against the pass.

Brian Robinson, RB, Commanders. It is flying under the radar a bit but Robinson is sixth overall in fantasy running back scoring. He is having a big season for fantasy teams. He has topped 20 fantasy points three times, including his last two games. The big difference for him this year is more work in the passing game. He has 13 receptions his last two games. And while you might be concerned to start him this week against the Cowboys, we think he is a great start. Robinson is setup to get a lot of work in the passing game once again with the Commanders likely playing from behind.

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys. Prescott started his season slow, but has quickly put that behind him. He is now fifth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring and second his last three games. He has 27-plus fantasy points four of five games. This Cowboys offense is clicking. Prescott has multiple scores five straight games. Prescott plays a Commanders team this week that couldn’t stop Tommy DeVito last week. Washington allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks and are 30th overall against the pass.

Michael Pittman, WR, Colts. Some people were down on Pittman before the start of the season with some uncertainty surrounding the Colts passing game. Well, Pittman has been great, playing even better than last year’s breakout season. He is 12th overall in fantasy receiver scoring. Heh as three straight games with eight receptions and hit that mark seven times this year. Pittman is a plug and play option, showing great consistency in this offense. Pittman could have a huge game this week. He plays the Bucs, a team that allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers and are 31st against the pass, allowing 270.7-passing yards per game.

COLD PLAYS

A.J. Dillon, RB, Packers. Dillon has gotten plenty of work this year, but his numbers haven’t been very good. His season-high in rushing yards is just 76 despite having double-digit carries six games. He also has jus tone touchdown despite being the goal-line back for the Packers. Even if Aaron Jones is out this week, which is likely, Dillon isn’t a great fantasy start against the Lions because of his production this year. Detroit also allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to running backs and are fifth overall against the run.

Russell Wilson, QB, Broncos. Wilson has been much better this season, doing a much better job than his first season in Denver. He got off to a great start, having 24-plus fantasy points three of his first five games. Wilson has more than 20 fantasy points just once since Week 5, though. He has played fine and the Broncos are winning, but Wilson isn’t helping fantasy teams. He has fewer than 20 fantasy points four of five games. He also has topped 200-passing yards just once during that five-game stretch. It should be more of the same for Wilson this week against a great Browns defense. Cleveland allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and are first overall against the pass.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins. Waddle isn't having near the season of last year. He is just 30th overall in fantasy receiver scoring. He has fewer than 60 yards two straight games and failed to reach double-digit fantasy points each of those games. It is tough to bench a player like Waddle with such a high ceiling, but if you have quality options on your bench, you might want to consider doing that this week. Waddle gets a great Jet secondary. The Jets allow the fewest fantasy points to receivers and are fifth overall against the pass.

Sam Howell, QB, Commanders. Howell has been a big surprise this year, being eighth overall in fantasy quarterback scoring. He didn’t even play well last week but still helped fantasy teams, scoring 23.25 fantasy points. The concern for him this week is staying upright against a great Cowboys front four. Howell might not have enough time to throw and complete any passes down the field, making him a scary fantasy play. Dallas is second overall against the pass and allow the sixth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season.

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders. Adams is finally getting more volume. He has 16 targets his last two games. All he needed was a coaching change to get more involved in the offense. But even with the said, his numbers aren’t off the charts. He has few than double-digit fantasy points two of four games and four of his last seven. He can still be hit or miss in an offense starting a rookie quarterback. We wouldn’t be surprised if Adams struggles some this week. The Chiefs managed to shutdown A.J. Brown last week, who was playing the best of any receiver coming into that game. It was an impressive performance. The pass defense has done that much of the season, though. Kansas City allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to receivers and are fourth overall against the pass.

SLEEPERS

Isaiah Likely, TE, Ravens. With Mark Andrews hurt, Likely gets his chance to shine as the starting tight end for the Ravens. He has done well in this role when given the chance. He has big-game potential. He has a great matchup for a start this week. Likely plays the Chargers, a team that is awful against the pass. The Chargers allow the most passing yards in all of football, giving up 291.8-passing yards per game. Los Angeles allows more than 20 yards than the next highest team.

Demario Douglas, WR, Patriots. It is tough to trust anyone in the Patriots offense, but Douglas is getting it done despite some terrible quarterback play. He has at least four receptions four straight games. He has double-digit fantasy points three of those games. He is a solid WR3 at this stage of the season, getting plenty of volume in the Patriots offense. Douglas gets the Giants this week, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers. He can keep it going.

Salvon Ahmed, RB, Dolphins. It would not surprise to see the Dolphins play it safe with De’Von Achane this weekend, holding him out of Friday’s game. This would open the door for Ahmed to be the top backup for the Dolphins. Ahmed can do well in that role in this explosive offense. He found the end zone last week and has double-digit fantasy points two of his last five games. Ahmed has at least three receptions three of five games, giving him a decent weekly fantasy floor. You could see the Dolphins getting up big against the Jets this week, leading to more carries for Ahmed, Plus, the Jets are just 30th overall against the run, allowing 137.6-rushing yards per game. New York also allows the ninth most fantasy points to running backs.

Tyler Conklin, TE, Jets. Conklin has been pretty good in a bad Jets passing game. He has 15 receptions on 16 targets his last three games. He has four games with double-digit fantasy points. It is hard to trust anyone in the Jets passing game, but maybe a change at quarterback will get it going a little. It can’t hurt, right? Conklin is worth a look at tight end this week against Miami. The Dolphins could get up big in this game and have allowed 15-passing touchdowns this season. Conklin could get a lot of volume with the Jets playing from behind, having to throw the ball.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Browns. Hunt has six straight games with double-digit carries. He has found the end zone five of those games. His production has been pretty consistent in a run-heavy offense. He should get the volume again this week against a bad Broncos rush defense. Denver allows the most fantasy points to running backs and are dead last against the run, allowing 160-rushing yards per game. Hunt is a solid flex play in this matchup.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Packers/Lions, Commanders/Cowboys, Jaguars/Texans, Bills/Eagles, Ravens/Chargers.

Low Scoring Games: Panthers/Titans, Steelers/Bengals, Patriots/Giants, Browns/Broncos.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 12

The Paur Report