Lineup Prep: Week 9

Wed Oct 29 9:12am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Metcalf setup for a big Week 9

It is hard to believe but we are over the halfway mark of the fantasy season. Time flies, right? It is just crazy how fast things are moving this year. It is going to be Thanksgiving before you know it. Hopefully, things are going well for you this year. But if not, now might be the time to make a move in leagues that allow trading. A couple things to look at if you want to solidify your roster. Look at the playoff schedule of the players you are considering. We have a pretty good idea of the defenses to target. And I like to get players that have already had their bye while trading a player that might still have a bye. This just gives you a bit of an edge going forward in my view. We still have three weeks of byes to worry about. Just a couple of things to keep in mind before pulling the trigger on any trade.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

The return of Christian Watson to the Packers lineup just clouds things even more with that receiving unit. I just hate to see so many quality options competing with each other for targets. Rookie Matthew Golden has been a big disappointment out of this group and should continue to be up and down in his current role. He has shown flashes but doesn’t get enough consistent work. Romeo Doubs plays the most but that doesn’t always translate to big production. And Dontayvion Wicks has made some big plays but done nothing other weeks. And Savion Williams is showing some potential but gets really sporadic work. All these guys are just making it tough to trust any of them on a weekly basis for fantasy teams. Not good.

I don’t blame the Saints for turning to Tyler Shough at quarterback. This team is going nowhere, so you might as well see what you have in the rookie. He looked pretty rough in the preseason, though, so that is a bit of a concern. He has some talent but remains raw. I would expect some erratic play from him the rest of the way. Don’t expect Shough to come in and play like Jaxson Dart has with the Giants. He has a long way to go to reach that level.

I continue to be amazed by Daniel Jones. He looks so good right now. I don’t think anyone saw this coming outside of Jones himself. And the funny thing to me is the competition was really close between him and Anthony Richardson for the starting job before the season. Many scratched their heads when Jones was named the starter, especially with Jones being kind of ho-hum during the preseason. Well, the Colts clearly made the right call. This offense is humming and the Colts might be the team to beat in the AFC right now. Just an amazing turnaround for Jones.

Not sure if you noticed, but Joe Flacco sure looks Ja’Marr Chase’s way often. I don’t think I can remember a player getting so heavily targeted from a quarterback. Chase had 19 targets last week and 23 the previous week. He has at least 12 targets and double-digit receptions all three games with Flacco as his starter. Chase has a great chance to move to the top of the fantasy receiver rankings in a hurry. He is on some kind of pace with Flacco throwing him passes. The trade of Flacco to the Bengals could end up winning a lot of Chase owners some fantasy titles this year.

You watch Dillon Gabriel and have to wonder how much longer the Browns keep playing him. He was awful last week, making some absolutely brutal decisions. Plus, he doesn’t seem to have the attributes to be a top starter in this league. He lacks arm strength and his anticipation isn’t very good. There was buzz about him before the draft that he might not pan out and much of that seems to be right on at the moment. I wonder how Shedeur Sanders looks in practice. Do the Browns really think he is any worse than Gabriel? I think they have to at least give him a look before the season is over to see what they have. Gabriel is not the answer.

All those Ladd McConkey has to be feeling pretty good right about now after his horrible start to the season. He has caught the eye of Justin Herbert once again and has 25 targets his last two games. This guy is an elite route runner and going to be a problem for secondaries for years to come. McConkey has at least 14 fantasy points four straight games and is third overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. McConkey is going to have some really good numbers in the end. I expect him to keep it going.

News and Notes: The Raiders signed receiver Tyler Lockett on Monday. He could play an immediate role on his new team, reuniting with former teammate Geno Smith. . . . .The Saints named rookie Tyler Shough their starting quarterback for the Week 9 game. He takes over for Spencer Rattler. . . . .The Patriots have traded safety Kyle Dugger and a 2026 seventh-round selection to the Steelers for a 2026 sixth-round pick. . . . .The 49ers acquired defensive end Keion White and a seventh-round draft pick in 2026 from the Patriots on Tuesday in exchange for a sixth-rounder next year.

HOT PLAYS

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals. Brown is finally starting to play like his fantasy owners hoped. He is 12th overall in fantasy running back scoring his last three games. Brown has run 23 times for 181 yards and a touchdown his last two games. He is making big play after big play. You have to like his chances to keep it going against the Bears, a team that allows the eighth most fantasy points to running backs. The Bears allowed the Ravens to run for 177 yards against them this past week.

Daniel Jones, QB, Colts. Jones continues to play at a high level. His start to the season wasn’t a fluke. He had his third three-touchdown game of the season last week. He has 25-plus fantasy points three straight games. Jones has multiple touchdowns all but two games. He has been so consistent all season. Expect another good showing from Jones in Week 9 against the Steelers. Pittsburgh allows the second most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has given up 300-plus passing yards three of four games.

Kimani Vidal, RB, Chargers. Vidal hit the 100-yard mark last week, giving him 100-yard games two of his last three. He has clearly emerged as the lead back in this Chargers offense. Vidal also has 19-plus fantasy points two of three games. Vidal is running well and even getting work in the passing game, having eight receptions his last three games. Vidal can hit the 100-yard mark again this week against the Titans, a team that has allowed 160-plus rushing yards three of four games. Tennessee allows the third most fantasy points to running backs.

DK Metcalf, WR, Steelers. Metcalf isn’t posting huge numbers but very consistent, scoring touchdowns all but two games. He has at least 11 fantasy points all but a game. Metcalf gets it done on a weekly basis as the top target for Aaron Rodgers. We like him to see his yards increase this week against the Colts. The Steelers are going to need to score some points to keep up with the Colts offense. Plus, Indy allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins. Waddle had five receptions for 99 yards and a touchdown last week against a really good Falcons secondary. It was an impressive performance. Waddle has 95 or more yards three of four games. He has become a must-start as the top receiver in the Dolphins passing game. He should get plenty of chances this week against the Ravens, a team that allows the second-most fantasy points to receivers.

COLD PLAYS

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. Kamara is the clear lead back but he has been a bust this year. He has fewer than double-digit fantasy points three of four games. He has not topped 35-rushing yards in four games and yet to have a 100-yard rushing game this year. Kamara has been a big-time fantasy player but you can’t start him based off past production. He isn’t getting it done and could struggle again this week against the Rams. Los Angeles allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and fewer than 100-rushing yards four of five games.

Keon Coleman, WR, Bills. Coleman has pretty much disappeared since a huge Week 1 performance, getting all his fantasy owners excited. He has one touchdown since the season opener and has not topped 50 yards in a single game. Coleman has been a huge disappointment once again. We know he could be involved in a high-scoring game against the Chiefs, but he is so hard to trust. We just shy away from him against a defense that allows the sixth fewest fantasy points to receivers.

Hunter Henry, TE, Patriots. Henry scored a touchdown last week but that was his only catch in the game. He has posted some decent fantasy numbers but his year but that was early in the season, having double-digit fantasy points three of his first four games. He has not topped eight fantasy points in a game since Week 4. Things won’t get any easier for him this week against the Falcons. Atlanta has completely shut down the tight end this year, allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Their entire pass defense has been great, allowing less than 200-passing yards every game.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Panthers. Dowdle played just 36 percent of the snaps last week, his lowest total since Week 2. This is a little concerning, seeing his playing time and production in recent weeks start to dwindle. Dowdle didn’t even catch a pass last week, which really hurts his fantasy floor. We would worry about him this week against the Packers, a team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to running backs. Green Bay has allowed more than 100-rushing yards just one game all season.

C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans. Stroud was fantastic last week against a good 49ers secondary. He threw for 318 yards and two touchdowns without his No. 1 receiver. San Francisco had some injuries in that game, though, so it was a little skewed in Stroud’s favor. Stroud has been up and down throughout the year, having fewer than 18 fantasy points each of his first three games. He remains more of a matchup play and a game against the Broncos isn’t a great one for him. We know cornerback Patrick Surtain is out but this defense remains very good. Denver allows the fourth fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and their intense pressure should impact Stroud throwing the ball.

SLEEPERS

Alec Pierce, WR, Colts. Pierce has played at least 81 percent of the snaps three straight games. He is the top big-play threat in the Colts passing game. Pierce averages 23.9 yards per receptions his last three games, showing that big-play ability. You have to like him to break off a big play or two this week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers. The Steelers have allowed at least 250-passing yards all but two games.

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins. Tagovailoa had his first four-touchdown game of the season last week. And he did this against a very good Falcons defense. It was a great performance after two really poor showings. You never know what you are going to get with Tagovailoa but maybe he can build on last week against a poor Ravens pass defense. The Dolphins are going to need to score some points this week if they hope to stay in this game. This bodes well for Tagovailoa to air it out often. Baltimore allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks and has allowed 250-plus passing yards three of four games.

Colston Loveland, TE, Bears. Loveland hasn’t exactly been off the charts with Cole Kmet out but does have three receptions each of his last two games. He has been targeted nine times, so he is getting some looks. It would not surprise to see him have his best game as a pro this week against a terrible Bengals defense. Cincinnati allows the most fantasy points to tight ends and at least 247-passing yards all but a game. Loveland might be worth taking a chance on this week.

Bam Knight, RB, Cardinals. The Cardinals released Michael Carter this week, so Knight is really the last man standing in the Cardinals backfield right now. Knight has touchdowns two of three games and at least nine fantasy points all three games. His numbers haven’t been off the charts but solid. Look for maybe his best game of the year this week against the Cowboys. Dallas allows the second most fantasy points to running backs and at least 136-rushing yards five straight games.

Travis Hunter, WR, Jaguars. The Jaguars are coming out of a bye week, so look for them to get Hunter more involved in the offense this week. He is coming off his best game of the season, catching eight passes for 101 yards and a touchdown on 14 targets. He has been targeted 21 times his last two games. Hunter should get plenty of looks this week against the Raiders, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to receivers.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Ravens/Dolphins, Bears/Bengals, Colts/Steelers, Chiefs/Bills, Cardinals/Cowboys.

Low Scoring Games: Broncos/Texans, Saints/Rams.

Bye Weeks: Browns, Jets, Eagles, Bucs.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 9

The Paur Report