Lineup Prep: Week 14

Wed Dec 3 8:35am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Lawrence can post big numbers

It is make or break for many fantasy teams this week. This is likely the last week of the regular season in your standard leagues. If that is the case, good luck. Get those roosters in order and put your best players out there to give you the best chance to win. I say it a lot but don’t get too cute. Sometimes owners can overthink things a little at this time of the year. I’ll say it again, don’t get too cute!

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . .

There are some pretty big busts happening in fantasy land this year. I know Lamar Jackson has missed time because of injury but he is just 37th in fantasy quarterback scoring. He has fewer than 12.5 fantasy points three straight games. Jackson just hasn’t looked like the same player running or throwing since returning from his hamstring injury in Week 9. Saquon Barkley is the other big-name bust for this year. Sure, he is 13th in fantasy running back scoring but mostly because he has played every game and gets a ton of weekly touches. He hasn’t been nearly as productive as last year, failing to top 20-plus fantasy points any game this year. Last year, Barkley had 20-plus points seven games. Neither of these players are coming near their high draft capital for the 2025 season. I didn’t see this coming with either player.

I still can’t fathom how Rhamondre Stevenson can get more work than TreVeyon Henderson in any game. Last week, Stevenson played 58 percent of the snaps compared to 49 percent for Henderson. Stevenson averages just 3.2 yards per carry for the season and has struggled in short-yardage situations throughout the season despite getting nearly all the chances in that area. It just makes no sense. All you have to do is watch the two play side by side. Henderson is so much more explosive and showed how he can dominate a game in a featured role when Stevenson was hurt a few weeks. Yet, we still have to watch Stevenson and Henderson split carries now that both are healthy. Just maddening. Could you imagine the numbers Henderson would have if he was getting most of the work at running back? Holy cow.

Rashee Rice could end up being a league winner this year for all the teams that took a chance on him despite being suspended six games to start his season. Rice is having a monster year, topping 20 fantasy points four of six games. He has double-digit targets three games. Rice just racks up the targets and catches on a weekly basis as the top receiver in this offense. He is a top-five fantasy receiver. And many of the teams that drafted him already have an elite option on their teams, giving them a top one-two punch at the position. It will be interesting to see how many championship teams had Rice on their roster at season’s end.

I would be a little worried about the Colts offense going forward after it was revealed that Daniel Jones is playing with a broken leg. Jones looked alright last week but not like the player from earlier this year. This is a concern for all the Colts playmakers, including Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Tyler Warren and Alec Pierce. Plus, the Colts have some tough matchups in the coming weeks against the Jaguars, Seahawks and 49ers. Taylor carried teams early in the year but might be swooning some at the wrong time for all his fantasy owners.

I could not be more impressed watching Drake Maye. He is the complete package at quarterback. And he is doing this without really an elite No. 1 receiver. Sure, Stefon Diggs is still a solid player but he isn’t the top option of past years. I’m really anxious to see what Maye can do going forward if the Patriots get him that elite receiver either through signing/trading or the draft. Maye has been top-five this year and could build on that. Scary. He is the real deal.

It looks like Chuba Hubbard has regained the No. 1 running back job once again in Carolina. Rico Dowdle has slowed down a little since his amazing stretch of games. Maybe all that work took it’s toll on Dowdle. Hubbard has been the better back the last two weeks. He looks explosive, is making plays the passing game and doing a great job in pass protection. This adds up to more and more touches for Hubbard. I would feel pretty good about having him on my roster for this stretch run.

News and Notes: The Steelers released cornerback Darius Slay on Tuesday. Slay was not able to make much of an impact with the team after signing a few weeks back. . . .The Steelers claimed receiver Adam Thielen off waivers on Tuesday. Thielen could get some playing time with his new team, serving as the possible No. 3 receiver. . . . .The Colts released kicker Michael Badgley on Tuesday. Indianapolis signed kicker Blake Grupe to their practice squad. Grupe should get first shot to take over the kicking duties for the Saints.

HOT PLAYS

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars. Lawrence is seventh overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has 23-plus points two straight games. Lawrence has all his weapons back and is producing his best numbers of the season. He has five touchdowns his last two games. He can keep it going in a big game against the Colts this week. Indy is middle of the pack against the pass and has some injuries in the secondary right now, including shutdown corner Sauce Gardner. The Colts have allowed 250-plus passing yards two straight games.

Tyler Warren, TE, Colts. Warren found the end zone last week, catching three passes for 22 yards. His yardage totals were held down again, but his touchdown made up for that. He has double-digit fantasy points two of three games and is fourth overall in fantasy tight end scoring for the season. He remains a must-start and should do well this week against the Jaguars, a team that struggles to stop the tight end. Jacksonville allows the second-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals. After a slow start to his season, Brown has really picked up his play. He has more than 100 total yards six straight games. He has 15-plus points five straight. Brown is eighth overall in fantasy running back scoring his last three games. He has become about a must-start for fantasy teams, especially this week against the Bills. Buffalo has really struggled to stop the run, allowing the third most fantasy points to running backs. The Bills have allowed 195-plus rushing yards two of four games.

Jameson Williams, WR, Lions. Williams is set to take over as the No. 1 receiver for the Lions with Amon-Ra St. Brown expected to miss some time. He had his best game of the season in an expanded role last week. He had seven receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets in Week 13. He should have another prominent role in a game that could be a shootout. The Cowboys also struggle to stop the pass, allowing the most fantasy points to receivers. Williams is setup for a smash game in Week 14.

Christian Watson, WR, Packers. Watson has really picked up his game, finishing 10th overall in fantasy receiver scoring his last three games. He was targeted a season-high 10 times this past week. He has 18-plus fantasy points two of three games. Watson is emerging in a crowded receiver room as the top target for the Packers and Jordan Love. He gets a Bears team this week that allows the eighth most fantasy points to receivers. Watson should keep up his hot ways.

COLD PLAYS

Ashton Jeanty, RB, Raiders. Jeanty is getting his touches but he isn’t getting many yards. He has fewer than 65-rushing yards six straight games. The only thing saving his fantasy value is his work in the passing game, having at least five receptions four of five games. The Broncos really held Jeanty in check his last meeting with him, having 63 total yards on 22 touches. The only thing that saved him was a touchdown. We aren’t sure he scores this week, though, so you might want to temper your expectations for Jeanty. The Broncos held the Raiders to just seven points in Week 10 and have allowed less than 20 points three of four games. Denver also allows the third fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. It is tough to bench Mahomes, but if you have some decent options this week, we might consider it. The main reason is his opponent, the Texans. Houston has been unbelievable against the pass this year. Houston has not allowed more than 200-passing yards in a game since Week 3. The most passing yards they gave up all season was in Week 1 to the Rams, which was just 224. Houston allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks on the season, giving up just 14.75 fantasy points to quarterbacks per game. And Mahomes has endured some tough games this year, having fewer than 18 fantasy points two of four games.

Jayden Higgins, WR, Texans. Higgins has emerged as a legit No. 2 receiver for the Texans the second half of the season. He has 11-plus fantasy points three of four games. He has at least four receptions all four of those games. He still has disappeared at times this year, though, having five games with a reception or less. He isn’t quite a sure thing. Higgins gets the Chiefs, a team that has shut down the passing game at times this year. Kansas City has allowed fewer than 200-passing yards six times. We think this might be a low-scoring affair.

Trey Benson, RB, Cardinals. Benson has a good shot to finally return this week from his knee injury but we aren’t sure you just throw him in your fantasy lineup. Remember, he had double-digit fantasy points just one of his four games this season. And he gets a tough matchup against a really good Rams defense this week. The Rams allow the fourth fewest fantasy points to running backs. We know the Panthers kind of ran all over the Rams last week but that was out of the norm. This defense has allowed fewer than 100-rushing yards six of 12 games.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles. Smith is starting to cool off with AJ Brown getting so much work lately. Smith has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of three games. He even had a favorable matchup last week but couldn’t do much. Smith gets a tougher matchup this week, so we might steer clear if you have better options. The Chargers allow the second fewest fantasy points to receivers and gave up less than 155-passing yards five straight games.

SLEEPERS

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Jaguars. Meyers has played a big role since joining the Jaguars. He has at least four receptions three straight games, catching 15 passes on 18 targets. He has at least 11 fantasy points three straight. Meyers is becoming the go-to target for the Jaguars passing game. It was uncertain how they might use him but that isn’t the case anymore. He is the guy. Look for another strong showing this week against the Colts, a team that allows the ninth most fantasy points to receivers.

Tyler Shough, QB, Saints. Shough is 11th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has 21-plus points two of three games. He is starting to play some good football and producing solid numbers in a starting role for the Saints. He continues to make progress and give the Saints hope they might have found their franchise quarterback. Look for another solid showing this week against the Bucs, a team that allows the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Devin Neal, RB, Saints. Neal didn’t have a huge game in his first NFL start but touched the ball 17 times and played 82 percent of the snaps. He is the clear lead back for the Saints right now with Alvin Kamara out. If he gets that much work again this week, Neal could help fantasy teams against the Bucs. Tampa does well in slowing the rushing yards but will give up some touchdowns to running backs and can struggle to stop backs as receivers out of the backfield. This could be an area that Neal excels in for Week 14, making him a sneaky flex play for fantasy teams.

Pat Bryant, WR, Broncos. Bryant had a season-high seven targets last week, catching three passes for 42 yards. He is getting more looks in recent weeks, forming a good rapport with Bo Nix. Bryant has 13 targets his last two games. He could have another good showing this week against the Raiders, a team that struggles to stop the pass. Las Vegas allows the third most fantasy points to receivers. Bryant had a 43-yard reception against the Raiders in Week 10.

AJ Barner, TE, Seahawks. Barner continues to lead the way at tight end for the Seahawks. He played 85 percent of the snaps last week. He had four receptions on five targets. Barner has double-digit fantasy points six of 12 games, showing he is a good spot play in the right matchup. And we think a game this week against the Falcons is a good one to use him. Atlanta has really been leaky against the pass in recent weeks, including giving up 400-plus passing yards to the Panthers in Week 11.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Cowboys/Lions, Bengals/Bills, Rams/Cardinals.

Low Scoring Games: Dolphins/Jets, Titans/Browns.

Bye Weeks: Panthers, Patriots, Giants, 49ers.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 14

The Paur Report