Lineup Prep: Week 3

Tue Sep 16 11:13pm ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Prescott setup for a big Week 3

Well, that was a lot more like it this past week. We saw the scoring really pick up. But we shouldn’t be totally shocked by this because a lot of teams barely play their starters in the preseason. It might take some time for these offenses to come together because of that. Just keep that in mind for next season when you want to sell your fantasy team after the first week of the season.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

Alright, I’m starting to really believe in Daniel Jones. It is one thing to have a big game against the Dolphins, but his showing last week against the Broncos was really impressive. Jones just looks like a different quarterback this year. Maybe he becomes the Sam Darnold of 2025. It has been quite the start for Jones. Really impressive.

Justin Herbert is playing at an MVP level to start his season. He looks as healthy as he has been in a long time and using his legs like never before. This just adds to his fantasy value. Plus, the Chargers are having little success running the ball, becoming more of a pass-first offense with Herbert leading the way. All those fantasy owners that waited on a quarterback and grabbed Herbert in the later rounds should be pretty happy right about now.

So how is Jake Browning becoming the starter impact the Bengals fantasy players? I’m glad you asked. Obviously, he is a downgrade from Burrow, but I do think he is going to air it out and take chances. So while I expect a little bit of a hit with their fantasy players, I don’t think it just kills their fantasy value. The Bengals are really struggling to run the ball right now as well, which means Browning could get his chances. I’m a little worried but not in a full-blown panic because of the injury. I would be more worried if I had Burrow as my starting quarterback. That is going to be hard to replace. If you can go get Daniel Jones, he would be my first choice.

I don’t think James Cook is going to continue to lead all fantasy backs in scoring, but I do like his chances to be a top-five fantasy back. Cook just looks electric right now. He also gets his touches as a runner or receiver on a weekly basis. The volume and the fact he plays in a great offense really give him great value going forward. He had some concerns going into the season because of his holdout or whatever you want to call it, but that might end up meaning he was just a very good value for the fantasy owners that drafted him.

We got the Justin Fields experience last week. He looked tremendous in the opener but was awful last week. He was supposed to be a player that could still score even if he struggled passing, but his rushing totals from last week couldn’t make up for that awful showing as a passer. I would expect more of the same from him going forward. Fields is going to be all over the map throughout the fantasy seasons.

After watching the first two weeks, I’m targeting the Cowboys defense when I’m setting my fantasy lineups. That defense is just awful. They get no pass rush and the secondary has been brutal. It was pretty unreal to see the Giants throw all over Dallas last week. I think that says all you need to know about this defense. The Cowboys are going to be in some shootouts this year.

Baker Mayfield continues to be very underrated. He has been very good in recent seasons and his start to this year has been impressive. He led his team to a comeback win last week and has five touchdowns without a turnover to start his season. Mayfield is so tough, taking several big hits in that game last week. He just keeps going and making plays. His career revival in Tampa has been something else. Mayfield is an elite fantasy quarterback.

News and Notes: The Vikings signed quarterback Desmond Ridder on Tuesday. He gives the team some insurance at the position with J.J. McCarthy banged up. . . . .The Jaguars released safety Darnell Savage on Tuesday. He played a reduced role to start the season, so this is a money-saving move for the Jaguars. . . . .The Bengals signed quarterbacks Mike White and Sean Clifford on Tuesday. Both quarterbacks will compete for a depth role for the Bengals.

HOT PLAYS

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys. Prescott didn’t do much in the opener but showed his potential this past week. He scored 26.8 fantasy points and attempted 52 passes in the game. Prescott plays in a pass-first offense and has looked sharp in each of his first two games. He has been accurate and made big plays down the field. He is setup for another good showing this week against the Bears, a team that was torched through the air this past week by the Lions. The Bears allow the most fantasy points to quarterbacks to start the season.

Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars. Etienne has been a big surprise, ranking ninth overall in fantasy running back scoring. He has 214-rushing yards through two games, averaging an impressive 7.1 yards per carry. He has looked explosive and is the clear top back for the Jaguars. Etienne should have another solid game this week against the Texans. Houston just allowed 169-rushing yards to the Bucs in Week 2.

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. Kamara has been one of the bright spots for the Saints offense. He has been racking up the touches, having 27 his last game. He should continue to get a ton of volume in an offense that has been up tempo, giving the Saints a few more plays each week. This is a positive for Kamara, especially this week against the Seahawks. Seattle allows the third most fantasy points to running backs through two weeks of action.

Rome Odunze, WR, Bears. Odunze has been the go-to target for Caleb Williams this season. He is fourth overall in fantasy receiver scoring. He has touchdowns each of his first two games and 13 receptions on 20 targets. Odunze is moving into must-start territory, especially if you consider the Bears could be playing from behind often. Chicago should be involved in a shootout this week against the Cowboys, a team that couldn’t stop the Giants passing attack last week. Dallas allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and couldn’t stop Malik Nabers in Week 2. This bodes well for Odunze to produce a huge game.

Michael Pittman, WR, Colts. Pittman was held in check a little more last week after his huge Week 1 but still had four receptions for 40 yards on five targets against one of the best corners in football, Patrick Surtain. Pittman proved he can still help fantasy teams even in a tough matchup. He gets a much easier matchup this week against the Titans, a team that allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers.

COLD PLAYS

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles. The Eagles new offense looks pretty vanilla these days. Hurts has taken fewer chances down the field and is just 15th overall in fantasy quarterback scoring after two games. Hurts has not attempted more than 23 passes in any of the first two games. And he has failed to top 200-passing yards in any game. We look for more of the same this week against the Rams, a team that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Hurts could have another ho-hum performance Week 3.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers. Jacobs has touchdowns each of his first two games but his overall numbers haven’t been great. He has just one catch and hasn’t topped 15 fantasy points in any game. He has been held in check but his touchdowns have saved his fantasy numbers. Jacobs could have more tough sledding this week against the Browns, a team that just completely shut down Derrick Henry. Cleveland allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs. The Browns haven’t allowed more than 50-rushing yards in a single game.

Nick Chubb, RB, Texans. It was great to see Chubb find the end zone last week, breaking a long run late in the game. He didn’t do anything before that run, though, finishing with 12 carries for just 43 yards. Chubb still seems to lack that burst from earlier in his career. He remains a hard player to trust, especially in an offense that hasn’t been very good this year. And you might want to stay away from Chubb this week against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has beefed up their defensive line and been great against the run, holding the Bengals to just 48-rushing yards last week.

Chris Olave, WR, Saints. The good news for Olave is he has been racking up the targets, having 23 in two games. He has 13 catches for 108 yards on the season. His numbers are fine but nothing eye-popping. His yards are down and he has yet to find the end zone. This makes him an iffy fantasy play, especially this week against a Seahawks team that is very good against the pass but can’t stop the run. Seattle allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers, so Olave could be setup for another so-so performance.

Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals. Higgins found the end zone last week but has just three receptions each of his first two games. He is not off to a great start. And now Joe Burrow is out, which is a concern. Jake Browning targeted Ja’Marr Chase early and often once entering the game. You have to wonder if this is going to be the case going forward, which would be bad news for Higgins. Plus, Higgins gets the Vikings this week, a team that allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers.

SLEEPERS

Drake Maye, QB, Patriots. Maye had a really good showing this past week, scoring three touchdowns. He racked up 28.6 fantasy points and has at least 19.7 fantasy points each of his first two games. He looks to be taking a step forward in year two in the Patriots new offense. Things are looking up for Maye, especially this week against a Steelers defense that has been really leaky to start the season. The Steelers allowed 32 points in Week 1 to the Jets and 31 points last week to the Seahawks. Maye can produce well in this one.

Tyquan Thornton, WR, Chiefs. Thornton has been the big-play threat for the Chiefs early in the season. He scored his first touchdown of the season last week and could have had another, but Patrick Mahomes overthrew him. Either way, Thornton is getting his weekly chances. He has played at least 72 percent of the snaps each of his first two games. Look for him to get some more chances to stretch the field this week against a bad Giants secondary. New York allows the most fantasy points to receivers, making Thornton a good streaming play for Week 3.

Calvin Austin, WR, Steelers. Austin had just a catch last week after having four for 70 yards and a touchdown Week 1. The good news for Austin, though, is he actually played more snaps than DK Metcalf last week (92 percent). Austin has been on the field often and is the clear starter opposite Metcalf. Austin has some real potential this week against the Patriots, a team that has allowed at least 297-passing yards each of their first two games.

Juwan Johnson, TE, Saints. Johnson is second overall in fantasy tight end scoring after two games, so it is a little hard to call him a sleeper. But he still isn’t getting a lot of fantasy love just yet. We don’t think his start is a fluke, though, having 20 targets in two games. He scored his first touchdown of the season last week and could rack up the targets again Week 3. As mentioned, the Seahawks are good at the pass but have struggled to stop the tight end. Seattle allows the most fantasy points to tight ends this year. Johnson is a legit high-end TE1 for Week 3.

Ray Davis, RB, Bills. Davis got more work last week after getting just a carry in the opener. He ran nine times for 24 yards, getting some chances with the team up big late in the game. This could be a similar scenario this week for Davis. The Bills play the lowly Dolphins. You could see this game being a blowout, giving Davis a few more chances once again. He could get some garbage-time carries. Remember, garbage time matters too. It wouldn’t surprise to see Davis enjoy his best game of the young season against a team that gives up the sixth most fantasy points to running backs.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Dolphins/Bills, Steelers/Patriots, Cowboys/Bears, Chiefs/Giants, Lions/Ravens.

Low Scoring Games: Falcons/Panthers, Saints/Seahawks.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 3

The Paur Report