RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 5

Fri Oct 3 11:04am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

The NFL will begin bye weeks with the Falcons, Bears, Packers and Steelers all off for Week 5. Our first limited slate leaves us with some tough decisions to make in DFS. Here are some players to consider for your lineups at each position, as well as a few to possibly avoid.

Quarterbacks

Daniel Jones, IND vs. LV ($5,800): Jones totaled 10 touchdown passes across his last 16 games with the Giants. He already has four touchdown passes through four games with the Colts. He has also added three rushing scores. His ability to contribute with his arms and his legs makes him an appealing option against a Raiders team that has allowed 24.8 points per game.

Justin Fields, NYJ vs. DAL ($5,600): The Cowboys are a team to target because they have allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Jets aren’t winning games with Fields under center, but he has still been productive for DFS purposes. He has rushed for at least 48 yards in all three of his games and he has three rushing touchdowns to go along with his two passing touchdowns. At his cheaper salary, he is even more appealing than Jones.

Player to Avoid

Baker Mayfield, TB at SEA ($6,300): Mayfield is battling knee and bicep injuries, but his status for Week 5 is not in jeopardy. However, he is going to continue to have limited weapons at his disposal. Mike Evans (hamstring) is still out and now Bucky Irving could miss time with foot and shoulder injuries. Missing two of his top players against a Seahawks team that has only allowed 16.8 points per game is not a recipe for success.

Running Backs

James Cook, BUF vs. NE ($7,100): Cook produced another monster stat line last week, rushing for 117 yards and one touchdown against the Saints. He has at least one touchdown in every game this season and he has run for at least 100 yards three times. With the Bills having one of the most potent offenses in the league, Cook has already received 17 carries inside the red zone. In two games against the Patriots last year, Cook combined for three touchdowns.

Breece Hall, NYJ vs. DAL ($5,600): The Jets have lost Hall’s top backup with Braelon Allen (knee) landing on injured reserve. While Hall still had a leading role, Allen received at least six carries in two of the first three games. With Allen going down early last week, Hall had 14 carries for 81 yards and caught five of six targets for 30 yards. Hall has already averaged 16.3 touches per game and now that number should be on the rise.

Player to Avoid

Travis Etienne Jr., JAX vs. KC ($5,900): Etienne torched the 49ers last week, rushing 19 times for 124 yards and one touchdown. It was his second game of the season with at least 120 rushing yards and his third game with at least 16 carries. As good as he has been, the Chiefs aren’t exactly a great matchup as they have given up just 19.0 points per game. Hall has an easier matchup and a cheaper salary, so this might be the week to steer clear of Etienne in DFS.

Wide Receivers

Jaylen Waddle, MIA at CAR ($5,800): The Dolphins have lost Tyreek Hill (knee) for the season, meaning that Waddle will now be their top wide receiver. Behind him on the depth chart are two underwhelming options in Malik Washington and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, so Waddle should receive all of the work that he can handle moving forward. In the one game that Waddle received double-digit targets last year, he caught nine passes for 99 yards.

Darius Slayton, NYG at NO ($4,300): Slayton should also benefit from an injury as the Giants have lost Malik Nabers (knee) for the season. Nabers missed two games for the Giants last season. In one of them, Slayton caught eight of 11 targets for 122 yards and one touchdown. In the other, he hauled in six of 11 targets for 57 yards. This is a great breakout spot for him against a Saints team that has allowed 9.57 yards per target to wide receivers.

Player to Avoid

Brian Thomas Jr., JAX vs. KC ($6,000): It has been a disappointing season for Thomas, who hasn’t topped 55 receiving yards in a game. While he had a rushing touchdown in Week 1, he is still looking for his first receiving touchdown. Finding the end zone could be difficult against the Chiefs, who have allowed just four passing touchdowns all season.

Tight Ends

Jake Ferguson, DAL at NYJ ($4,800): All signs are pointing to CeeDee Lamb (ankle) missing another game for the Cowboys. Ferguson has stepped up in his absence, posting 20 receptions for 122 yards and one touchdown over the last two games. He was targeted 21 times during that span and already has 39 targets for the season. Opposing defenses can’t just focus on stopping Ferguson with George Pickens being such a dangerous deep threat, so Ferguson could continue to receive ample opportunities to contribute in the middle of the field.

Dalton Schultz, HOU at BAL ($3,600): Nico Collins leads the Texans with 31 targets this season. Next up behind him is Schultz, who has 21 targets. No other player on the Texans has been given more than 12 targets. Schultz hasn’t been racking up receiving yards, but he does have 10 total receptions over the last two games. The Ravens have allowed 9.89 yards per target to tight ends, leaving Schultz with the potential to produce his best stat line of the season.

Player to Avoid

Travis Kelce, KC at JAX ($4,300): The Jaguars have done an excellent job on defense, allowing only 18.0 points per game. With Xavier Worthy back in the fold last week, Kelce finished with five receptions for 48 yards against the Ravens. Kelce only has an average depth of target of 4.9 yards and has been targeted on just 16.3% of his routes run. In what could be a low-scoring game, Kelce comes with some risk.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

RealTime DFS Strategy: Week 5

The Paur Report