Lineup Prep: Week 11

Wed Nov 12 8:07am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Dowdle is setup for more success

We sure are moving right along, already in Week 11 of the fantasy football season. Standings are clearly taking shape, getting a good idea of who still has a shot to make the playoffs. If you aren’t one of those playoff teams and are in a dynasty format, don’t hesitate to plan for the future. Trade some of your players for draft picks to help prepare you for the future. Just because your fantasy season might be over doesn’t mean you have to just let the season play out and sit on your hands. Be proactive.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

This is not a hot take but Jaxson Dart is going to have to tone down his reckless running with the football. He is not going to last long in the NFL if he keeps playing like he has to start his career. Hopefully, he figures it out sooner than later because he is a special talent. I still can’t believe what he is doing on a team with so little to work with offensively. Dart is going to be a stud for years to come. Let’s just hope he can stay on the field.

I never want to wish injury on anyone but Garrett Wilson getting hurt might be a blessing in disguise for him and his fantasy owners. The Jets passing game is absolutely awful. And while Wilson has been alright at times this year, you have to wonder if he would have been very productive going forward with how bad this offense has been playing lately. It might be good for his fantasy owners, who likely would have played him no matter what on a weekly basis because of his big-time ability. I just want to see Wilson get healthy and a good quarterback to work with in 2026. This season was a lost year for him.

The Eagles have to make some changes offensively. Their current philosophy isn’t working and they need to adjust. The offensive line just isn’t opening the holes for Saquon Barkley. Philadelphia might need to come out more pass-first to help open up the offense. If they can start making big plays down the field, that should help Barkley find more room to run. Right now, this offense isn’t working and something needs to change. Barkley has 60 or fewer rushing yards all but two games.

It is pretty amazing that Joe Burrow is already practicing on a limited basis. I would not count out a return in the near future - maybe even for the fantasy playoffs. So if he is available in your league for some reason, go grab him now. He could be a factor once again this year. The Bengals passing game has been great in recent weeks, so Burrow might end up being a difference maker before it is all said and done.

Trey McBride sure has a great connection with Jacoby Brissett. He has double-digit targets three of the four starts of Brissett. He has at least 16 fantasy points all four of Brissett’s starts. He also has found the end zone every one of those starts. The numbers don’t lie. Brissett has helped make McBride the top fantasy tight end in the game. This duo has a great connection right now.

If I’m a Saints fan, I’m encouraged with what I’m seeing from rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. He is making progress each week and could be the franchise quarterback the team was searching. He still could have some bumps along the way this year, but I think new head coach Kellen Moore is doing a great job with the rookie. Things are trending up for this entire Saints offense.

On the flip side, I don’t think the Browns have found their franchise quarterback in Dillon Gabriel. He just doesn’t have the arm strength in my view to be a top-notch NFL starter. Plus, he doesn’t always make the right read and can hold onto the ball too long. And you can lack arm strength and still be a solid NFL quarterback, but those kind of guys need to be highly accurate. I don’t think Gabriel has that accuracy. Personally, I would like to see the team give a shot to rookie Shedur Sanders before the season is over. We’ll see.

News and Notes: Tampa Bay running back Josh Williams has been suspended without pay for violating the NFL's Performance Enhancing Substance Policy. Williams is eligible for reinstatement on December 16. . . . Free agent kicker Justin Tucker had his suspension end on Tuesday after the first 10 weeks of the NFL season. He was suspended for violating the league's personal conduct policy. Tucker is free to sign with any team.

HOT PLAYS

Woody Marks, RB, Texans. Marks played a season-high 80 percent of the snaps last week, emerging as the lead back for the Texans. He scored 16.1 fantasy points and had 81 total yards. Marks has 12-plus fantasy points three of four games, showing good consistency with his larger workload. We like him to play week again this week against the Titans. Marks had a season-high 27.9 fantasy points against the Titans in Week 4. Tennessee has struggled to stop the run all year, allowing the fifth most fantasy points to running backs.

Joe Flacco, QB, Bengals. Flacco is first overall in fantasy quarterback scoring his last three games. He has topped 20 fantasy points all four starts with the Bengals. He had his best game of the season his last time out, throwing for 470 yards and four touchdowns against the Bears. He gets the Steelers this week, a team he scored 29.4 points against in Week 7. Look for more of the same from Flacco in this one, getting the team that allows the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

George Pickens, WR, Cowboys. Even with CeeDee Lamb back, Pickens continues to post solid numbers. Pickens has at least 13 fantasy points all but Week 1 of the season. He has been targeted nine times two straight and three of four games. He gets a ton of volume and is normally good for a big play or two on a weekly basis. Look for good things from Pickens in Week 11 against the Raiders, a team that allows the fifth most fantasy points to receivers. The Raiders have allowed 30 or more points two of three games.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Panthers. Dowdle is carrying the Panthers offense at this point. He has touchdowns two straight games and 48 touches in those games. Dowdle has 15-plus fantasy points four of six games. The Panthers are leaning on him and he is rewarding them with great play. He can have another big game this week against a Falcons team that does well against the pass but struggles against the run. Atlanta allows the fourth most fantasy points to running backs. Dowdle found the end zone against the Falcons in Week 3.

Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings. Addison had just three catches for 35 yards last week but was targeted 11 times. That is a ton of looks and very encouraging for him going forward despite his poor production for fantasy teams. If he gets double-digit targets again this week, look for big numbers against the Bears. Chicago has been dismal against the pass and allows the sixth most fantasy points to receivers. The Bears have allowed 711-passing yards their last two games. Addison can get it going this week.

COLD PLAYS

Kenneth Walker, RB, Seahawks. Walker continues to split the work at running back with Zach Charbonnet. He does have double-digit carries every game this season but has not had double-digit fantasy points since Week 4. His lack of work in the passing game is really hurting his floor, making him a tough fantasy start. We might steer clear of him this week against a good Rams rush defense. The Rams allow the fewest fantasy points to running backs and haven’t given up fewer than 100-rushing yards three straight and six of seven games.

Bo Nix, QB, Broncos. Nix has played very well at times this year but struggled at times as well. He has fewer than 200-passing yards five times, including two straight games. He scored a season-low 9.5 fantasy points last week against a mediocre Raiders defense. Nix has been a mixed bag this year, failing to take that step forward you had hoped. He could have more tough sledding this week against the Chiefs, a team that allows the 12th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Chiefs have allowed 200 or fewer passing yards three of four games.

Xavier Worthy, WR, Chiefs. There were high hopes for Worthy this year and he has done some good things at times but just isn’t getting the volume to be a consistent fantasy play. He has less than double-digit fantasy points two of three games. Worthy might be more of a matchup play than an every-week fantasy starter. And a game this week against the Broncos could be a tough one for Worthy. Despite losing top cornerback Patrick Surtain, Denver still allows the fewest fantasy points to receivers. The Broncos have allowed less than 200-passing yards two straight games.

Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens. Henry had 20 carries last week but managed just 75 yards. He is getting a lot of volume but just isn’t having the same success as last year in this offense. His numbers have been more erratic. He has not topped 20 fantasy points in a game since Week 1. Things could be tough again for him this week against the Browns, a team he ran 11 times for 23 yards against in Week 2. Cleveland allows the third fewest fantasy points to running backs on the season.

Tet McMillan, WR, Panthers. McMillan is having a solid rookie year but nothing too special, mainly because the Panthers continue to get erratic quarterback play. McMillan has fewer than double-digit fantasy points two of four games. He gets his weekly looks but his yardage totals have really been held in check, topping 60 yards in a game just one time his last five games. He could have another mediocre game this week against the Falcons. He had three catches for 48 yards on eight targets against Atlanta in week 3. The Falcons allow the seventh fewest fantasy points to receivers.

SLEEPERS

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Steelers. Rodgers hasn’t been much help to fantasy teams outside of a few games. He has less than 20 fantasy points all but two games. But one of his big games came against his opponent this week, the Bengals. He threw for 249 yards and four touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 7. Rodgers had 27.05 fantasy points in that game. So he will be a good streaming play against Cincinnati, a team that allows the fourth most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns. Tillman returned to the lineup last week and played 73 percent of the snaps. He got near his usual starter workload. He had just two receptions for 11 yards on four targets. But he played and got his chances, so the potential is there for the big-play target. Remember, Tillman found the end zone two straight games to start his season, including one against this week’s opponent, the Ravens, before getting injured. Baltimore allows the fourth most fantasy points to receivers and giving up at least 245-passing yards three straight. Tillman might be worth taking a chance on this week.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Steelers. Gainwell didn’t have a single carry last week but actually played the most of any Steelers back, playing 52 percent of the snaps. This was his highest snap count since Week 4. If he gets this big of a workload this week against the lowly Bengals, Gainwell might do some damage. The Bengals allow the most fantasy points to running backs and have allowed 250-plus rushing yards two straight games. Gainwell could be worth a shot in this one. He might surprise.

Sean Tucker, RB, Bucs. Tucker didn’t get a ton of work last week but led the Bucs in rushing, running nine times for 53 yards. He was the best back for the Bucs and could get even more work this week with Rachaad White doing little with his chances. Tucker has some potential against the Bills, a team that allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs. The Bills were torched on the ground by the Dolphins last week, allowing 197-rushing yards.

Noah Fant, TE, Bengals. Fant is emerging as the top target at tight end for the Bengals. He has found the end zone two of three games. He has at least 6.7 fantasy points four straight games, showing a decent floor. Fant plays the Steelers, a team he scored 14.4 fantasy points against in Week 7. He might be a good streaming play against a team that struggles to stop the tight end, allowing the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low-scoring games for the coming week. In high-scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low-scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: Bengals/Steelers, Bucs/Bills, 49ers/Cardinals, Cowboys/Raiders, Lions/Eagles.

Low Scoring Games: Jets/Patriots, Panthers/Falcons, Texans/Titans, Ravens/Browns,

Bye Weeks: Colts, Saints.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 11

The Paur Report