Lineup Prep: Week 5

Wed Oct 1 9:17am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Goff is setup for a big Week 5

This is your friendly reminder that the dreaded byes start this week. And we start the byes with some top-notch players sitting out. We have the Falcons, Bears, Packers and Steelers on a bye. Just plan accordingly. I always advocate planning for your byes. You can look ahead and figure out when your top players are going to sit out. Find those backups with favorable matchups to try to fill the holes. Just something to keep in mind.

Now for my random thoughts for the week. . . . .

It might have been a little premature to write off the rookie class of running backs after three weeks. These guys are getting going and in a big way, showing their big-time ability. Ashton Jeanty finally had that huge game. Omarion Hampton looked fantastic in his start last week. Quinshon Judkins is getting a ton of work and producing since finally signing with the Browns. Remember, it is a long season and it takes some time for some of these players. Patience.

I also guess it was a little premature to write off Travis Etienne. He has looked like a different player this year. He looks so explosive. It does not look like the same player from last season. Etienne has at least 11 fantasy points every game and is currently 10th overall in fantasy running back scoring. He is going to end up being a huge bargain for any team that drafted him. I don’t see him as a sell-high player at all. I would hold him and enjoy the ride.

I know he is not going to keep his current pace, but if he does, Puka Nacua finishes with 179 receptions for 2,138 yards and four touchdowns. Those numbers are just crazy. Again, it would be hard to fathom him continuing his current pace, but this just shows you what kind of start he is off to this season. Just crazy.

I’m really impressed with the Saints coaching staff. They are doing a great job with that team, especially offensively. The Saints lack some talent on that side of the ball but are creative and doing a good job of playing to the strengths of starting quarterback Spencer Rattler. If this team can bring some more talent in during the offseason, I think they could have some really exciting fantasy players. New Orleans has the right people in charge. Let’s just hope they can get the right players on the field now.

The Ravens slow start might be my biggest surprise this year. I thought this team was a Super Bowl contender. Baltimore just doesn’t look like the same team, though, especially defensively. And even the offense hasn’t looked as dominating, including Derrick Henry. Maybe Henry is actually slowing down for the first time in his career. And now Lamar Jackson is dinged up and might not play, which is even worse news for this offense. Things are not looking good in Baltimore right now.

His numbers aren’t always off the charts, but Josh Jacobs is about as safe of a RB1 as it gets because of all his volume. He just racks up the touches on a weekly basis and never seems to slow down. His workload gives him one of the safest floors in fantasy football. Jacobs has 90 touches in four games, averaging 23 touches per game. You have to love that volume, especially in this solid Packers offense. Sometimes consistency means as much as anything when it comes to winning your fantasy league, making Jacobs a possible league winner.

I admire Brock Bowers for playing through his knee injury but it is clear he isn’t 100 percent healthy. He just isn’t making the plays after the catch that you have come to expect from him. He has fewer than 50 yards three straight games despite having at least four catches all of those games. Hopefully, that knee gets closer to 100 percent sooner then later so Bowers can get back to having those big gamers.

News and Notes: The Commanders signed receiver Robbie Chosen to their practice squad on Tuesday. He gives the team some depth at receiver and could end up being active for the Week 5 game. . . . .The Dolphins signed receiver Cedrick Wilson from the Saints practice squad on Tuesday. He could get some immediate playing time after the season-ending injury to Tyreek Hill.

HOT PLAYS

Jared Goff, QB, Lions. Goff has been a little quiet in recent weeks but is still playing good football. He had multiple touchdown passes against a good Brown defense last week. And we can’t forget about the five-touchdown performance from him in Week 2 against the Bears. This Lions offense is starting to roll and play like they did last season. This should be scary for the rest of the league, especially the Bengals this week. Cincinnati is a team reeling. The Bengals allow the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks and allowed more than 500 total yards of offense last week. The Lions offense, including Goff, should post huge numbers in this matchup.

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints. Kamara hasn’t been off the charts this year but he is getting his touches and producing. He has at least 11 fantasy points three of four games. He has 19 or more touches three straight games. Kamara racks up the work for the Saints - even with Kendre Miller getting a few more touches in recent weeks. We wouldn’t worry too much about that just yet, especially against the Giants this week. New York allows the fifth most fantasy points to running backs and 100-plus rushing yards every game this year.

Michael Pittman, WR, Colts. Pittman had a season-high 10 targets last week. He found the end zone once again, having touchdowns three of four games. He has at least 15 fantasy points three of those games. Pittman has been a consistent producer in a much better Colts passing game this year. We look for more of the same against him in Week 5 against the Raiders. Las Vegas allows the third most fantasy points to receivers and has struggled to stop the top target in opposing teams.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills. There was thought that Keon Coleman was going to emerge as the go-to target for the Bills this year, but that isn’t happening. Shakir remains Josh Allen’s favorite target. Shakir has at least 12 fantasy points three of four games. He has touchdowns two straight games. This offense is starting to get it going once again, making Shakir a good fantasy option once again. Shakir should have another good game this week against the Patriots, a team that allows the 12th most fantasy points to receivers. This could be a high-scoring game with plenty of fantasy points to be had on both sides of the ball.

COLD PLAYS

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars. The Jaguars are winning games but Lawrence isn’t helping many fantasy teams with his play. He has less than 14 fantasy points three of four games. He has failed to top 200-passing yards two games. Lawrence is more of a matchup play at this point of the season. And a game this week against the Chiefs is not a good one for him. The Chiefs have allowed fewer than 200-passing yards three straight games, including matchups with the Eagles and Ravens.

Jordan Mason, RB, Vikings. Mason has played well in a starting role, getting plenty of chances in the Vikings offense. He was pretty ho-hum last week, though, rushing 16 times for 57 yards. He averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. Mason could have more tough sledding this week against a really good Browns rush defense. Cleveland allows the second fewest fantasy points to running backs and less than 100-rushing yards all but one game. Some of the top fantasy backs in the game have struggled against this Browns run defense.

Nick Chubb, RB, Texans. Chubb is the starter in Houston for now but Woody Marks is knocking on the door to take that job. Chubb just hasn’t shown much despite having at least 12 carries all but one game. His season high in rushing is 60 yards. So despite having a prime matchup against a bad Ravens defense this week, we would steer clear of Chubb. Marks is ready to take over this backfield and Chubb isn’t worth the risk.

Chris Godwin, WR, Bucs. Godwin is back and played 81 percent of the snaps. He got a full workload and came out of the game fine. The only concern is he started a little slow in his first game back from a terrible ankle injury. It might take him some time to get things going like he did in the past. And a game this week against the Seahawks is another tough one for Godwin. Seattle allows the third fewest fantasy points to receivers. The Seahawks have allowed 205 or fewer passing yards three straight games.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers. It is hard to bench McConkey but you might want to consider it. The numbers don’t like. He is yet to be targeted double-digit times in a game. McConkey has failed to hit double-digit fantasy points three straight and hasn’t hit 50 yards in any of those games. He has really struggled to get the looks since the arrival of Keenan Allen and emergence of Quentin Johnston. McConkey is a scary play for fantasy teams right now - no matter the matchup.

SLEEPERS

C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans. Stroud finally showed some signs of life last week, topping 20 fantasy points for the first time all season. He completed 22-of-28 passes for 233 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover. It was an encouraging performance after his slow start to the season. Maybe Stroud can find that magic from his rookie season once again. You have to like his chances for another good game this week against the Ravens. Baltimore is a mess defensively, allowing the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes just had a four-touchdown performance against this defense last week.

Tommy Tremble, TE, Panthers. Tremble had a season-high eight targets last week, catching five passes for 42 yards and a touchdown. He looked good in a starting role for the Panthers with Ja’Tavion Sanders hurt. As long as he is starting, Tremble has some potential in this Panthers offense. Carolina has little in the passing game outside of Tet McMillan. Tremble could surprise again this week against the Dolphins. Miami has struggled to stop the tight end, allowing the third most fantasy points to tight ends.

Ollie Gordon, RB, Dolphins. Gordon played a season-high 26 percent of the snaps last week. He ran six times for just 10 yards, though. It was not a good showing for Gordon. The positive is he played and got some carries. He had a touchdown his previous game, so the potential is there for him to produce if he keeps getting the touches. And a game this week against the Panthers is a good one for Gordon. You could see the Dolphins get up in this game, leaning on the run late. Plus, with Tyreek Hill out, Miami also could be a little more run-first going forward. This bodes well for Gordon to start to get in a rhythm offensively.

Tre Tucker, WR, Raiders. Tucker has been up and down this year. He had huge games Weeks 1 and 3 but fewer than 15-receiving yards each of his other two games. Needless to say, he has been boom or bust. Tucker has the potential to boom this week against the Colts, though. Indy allowed the fourth most fantasy points to receivers and just got torched by the Rams passing game last week, allowing nearly 400-passing yards. Tucker could be a good spot play in this one.

Kendrick Bourne, WR, 49ers. The 49ers are all beat up at receiver. Bourne is about the last man standing. He played 67 percent of the snaps last week and 72 percent the previous game. Bourne has at least three receptions two of three games. He could produce some decent numbers if given the chance. And with the 49ers looking for options to step up in the passing game, Bourne is likely the best bet for this week. And he gets a Rams team this week that allows the 10th most fantasy points to receivers.

High/Low Scoring Games

Each week we will take a look at some of the high and low scoring games for the coming week. In high scoring affairs, get your marginal players on those teams in your lineup to take advantage of the possible points barrage. And in the low scoring games, keep those marginal players on the bench and make sure to have your defenses involved in those contests.

High Scoring Games: 49ers/Rams, Cowboys/Jets, Raiders/Colts, Lions/Bengals, Patriots/Bills, Commanders/Chargers.

Low Scoring Games: Vikings/Browns, Texans/Ravens.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at [email protected]. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Lineup Prep: Week 5

The Paur Report